TIn this week’s trio of byelections, we have a unique opportunity to gauge the popularity of the government in the final stages of this parliamentary term. These seats, all previously held by the Tories, represent three distinct English constituencies: the nation’s capital, North Yorkshire, and the south-west. Unfortunately for Rishi Sunak, the prospects are looking grim. Scandals involving three Conservative MPs, including the disgraced former prime minister Boris Johnson, have triggered these contests, which ominously resemble a trial run for the next general election.
The Tories do not deserve to emerge victorious in any of these seats. The five pledges made by Mr. Sunak to judge his government’s performance are not on track to be fulfilled. People are struggling to make ends meet, public services are deteriorating, and the state’s safety net has gaping holes that result in entire families slipping through.
However, do the opposition parties deserve to win these contests? In the case of the Liberal Democrats, the party with the best chance in Somerton and Frome, the answer is yes. The party has achieved three remarkable byelection victories against the Conservatives, tapping into the widespread discontent over the collapsing NHS services and positioning itself as the champion of constitutional reform on a national level. Winning a rural seat with a Tory majority of 19,000 will undoubtedly be challenging, but it is crucial for the party to regain its strongholds in the English south-west and hinder the Tories from securing enough seats to form the next government.
The country’s sentiment is leaning against the Tories, but it is not unequivocally in favor of Labour at this point. The party has faced difficulties in London’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency due to its unpopular policy of charging polluting vehicles. Sir Keir Starmer supports both Sadiq Khan, the mayor implementing these charges, and the party’s parliamentary candidate who opposes them. This uncomfortable position may explain why Labour MPs have been directed to North Yorkshire’s Selby and Ainsty, where Sir Keir aims to make history by overturning a Tory majority of 20,000.
As Labour’s lead in the polls has grown, so has Sir Keir’s level of criticism towards the policies he stood for when becoming Labour leader. This has alienated many, including Jamie Driscoll, the left-wing mayor of the North of Tyne, who has decided to leave Labour and run as an independent after being excluded from the race for the north-east mayoralty.
Sir Keir seems unconcerned about the departure of critics from the left. Instead, they should stay and fight, like Labour MP Meg Hillier, to make it difficult for him to uphold his promise of retaining a cruel policy that financially limits benefits after a family’s second child, ultimately plunging 250,000 children into absolute poverty. No other country has implemented such a policy. Its creator, former Tory chancellor George Osborne, argued that it would discourage financially struggling families from having more children, but it has only worsened the plight of already struggling families. If Sir Keir wins a byelection or two, it should not be attributed to his decision to sacrifice the well-being of vulnerable children for the sake of electoral caution.
The Labour leader should not be content playing a game in which the rules have been set by his opponents. The government is projected to borrow £217bn over the next two years. The upcoming general election is Labour’s to lose. However, the party risks self-defeat if it cannot allocate a fraction of the current fiscal deficit to reverse an ineffective austerity measure that disproportionately harms the most vulnerable members of society.
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