Joe Biden is set to make his return to the campaign trail with a rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. This will be his first major political event since announcing his re-election bid in April. The president’s team is hopeful for a warm reception in his hometown, where he grew up in Scranton. However, concerns have been raised about the lack of enthusiasm for the 80-year-old’s second term.
While Biden faces no serious challengers for the Democratic nomination in 2024, environmental lawyer and vaccine sceptic Robert F Kennedy Jr and self-help author Marianne Williamson have launched primary campaigns against him. However, experts believe these candidates have little chance of securing the party’s nomination. Despite this, the combined support for Kennedy and Williamson is over 20% of the Democratic electorate, highlighting the uphill battle Biden faces with his persistently low approval ratings.
National opinion polls indicate that only 40.6% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, while 54.9% disapprove. This puts the president at a disadvantage. Kyle Kondik from the non-partisan University of Virginia Center for Politics acknowledges the weakness in Biden’s position, especially when surveys show a majority of Democratic voters prefer someone other than Biden as the party’s nominee in 2024.
Biden’s allies argue that his experience in defeating Donald Trump makes him the best candidate to take on the former president in 2024. However, recent opinion polls, including one by the Economist and YouGov, show Biden and Trump in a statistical tie in a hypothetical head-to-head contest.
There is real nervousness among local party activists in key early voting states like New Hampshire about Biden being the presumptive nominee. Many believe that Biden could suffer an embarrassing loss in New Hampshire and Iowa if those states continue with their early nominating contests. Biden’s team has hinted that he may not participate if they defy the calendar changes. Kennedy’s relatively high polling numbers, thanks to his famous family name and positive coverage from conservative media outlets, also indicate some Democratic voters looking for an alternative to Biden.
Age and ability are concerns raised by Democratic voters who question whether sticking with Biden puts the party’s chances of winning the White House at risk. Biden’s stumble at a graduation ceremony in Colorado fuelled these concerns. Republicans, like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, have used this incident to attack Biden and his policies. DeSantis, who is polling second behind Trump in the Republican field, has challenged Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom of California to enter the race against Biden.
Newsom, while praised by Democrats as a future presidential hopeful, has repeatedly said he is not running for president and has endorsed Biden’s re-election. However, he recently showed some willingness to participate in a public debate against DeSantis. Other names floated as potential Democratic presidential candidates include Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who won re-election in 2022. Whitmer is an official co-chair of Biden’s re-election campaign and has insisted that any funds raised by her political action committee will go towards supporting Biden and other Democratic candidates, not a hypothetical presidential campaign.
Despite these potential challengers and concerns within the party, Democrats have shown unity behind Biden. Many attribute this to the party’s better-than-expected performance in the 2022 midterms. The hope is that as Biden, the White House, and surrogates continue to communicate his accomplishments, there will be a shift in the polls in his favor.
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