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In the midst of scorching temperatures setting global records this year, I have engaged in discussions with climate scientists regarding a commonly asked question.
Are these extreme heatwaves signaling the approach of critical tipping points that, once surpassed, will propel the Earth’s climate into irreversible and unpredictable territory, leading to runaway global warming?
The researchers I spoke to did not expect the record-breaking heat to directly trigger drastic shifts in the global climate system.
However, some of them believe that the extremes may be indicative of certain parts of the system losing stability, serving as “early warning signals” of more abrupt and persistent shifts, as suggested by Tim Lenton, a prominent tipping point expert from the University of Exeter.
Nonetheless, none of these experts anticipated global warming to transform Earth into an inhospitable environment resembling Venus or a desolate moonscape.
Unfortunately, many individuals hold a different viewpoint. Last month, a typical social media post exclaimed “We’re doomed” following the confirmation that June was the hottest on record. Another individual warned that rapid warming will cause destruction well before 2050 after July became the hottest month on record.
These expressions of climate doomism are not new. In 2015, American writer Roy Scranton published a book titled Learning to Die in the Anthropocene, which explored finding meaning amidst the collapse of global civilization. Furthermore, in 2018, British professor Jem Bendell released a paper that sparked the “deep adaptation” movement, proposing that climate-induced societal collapse is imminent for most of the world.
A study conducted in 2021 involving 10,000 young people across 10 countries revealed that 56% of them agreed with the statement “humanity is doomed,” while 76% expressed fear for the future. All of this was before the ocean waters off Florida warmed to hot tub levels and midwinter Antarctic sea ice became alarmingly scarce in 2023.
Understandably, concerns for the future are valid. The number of political leaders meaningfully addressing the escalating climate crisis remains disappointingly low. While a transition to green energy is underway, it is progressing at a pace insufficient to prevent substantial additional warming.
Seeing charts depicting the astonishing temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean, such as the one shared by Colin Morice, a scientist at the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre, is genuinely alarming. In June, the North Atlantic ocean temperatures were 1.49°C above the 1961-1990 average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.96°C.
However, dwelling on doomist beliefs is counterproductive as it fosters paralysis and disengagement, playing right into the hands of those who oppose climate action. It is no surprise that an increasing number of scientists liken climate doomists to the climate deniers who spent years sowing doubt about the existence and cause of global warming.
Jonathan Foley, a climate scientist from the United States, expresses bewilderment at this shift. He notes, “A few years ago, you had activist climate deniers who were spewing nonsense about climate science and saying, ‘Oh you’re all exaggerating this thing’. And now you have climate doomists saying ‘Oh you’re all underplaying what’s going to happen’.”
In my view, doomists have yet to inflict as much harm as the deniers who hindered early attempts to reduce carbon emissions, or their present-day counterparts who knowingly exaggerate the costs of climate action.
However, it is easy to see how doomist thinking can spread, especially in a year like this, with a warming El Niño pattern compounding the effects of human-caused temperature rise. This situation has created confusion concerning tipping points and the potential for runaway warming.
Scientists are concerned about specific parts of the climate system, such as Amazon forest dieback and melting polar ice sheets, which could have far-reaching consequences for millions of lives. The risks associated with these tipping points are significant and cannot be downplayed. Nonetheless, they are not equivalent to a tipping point in global warming itself, which could truly transform Earth into a Venus-like planet.
We must keep this in mind. Additionally, we should acknowledge that climate tipping points are now in a race against technological tipping points that could drive widespread adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy. Furthermore, scientists have significantly revised their estimates regarding the impact of these technologies in achieving net-zero CO₂ emissions, suggesting that global temperatures would cease to rise in just a few years.
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