A year ago, Xi Jinping dominated the Communist party congress, eliminating his rivals in the process. But surprisingly, he has now begun removing his allies as well, causing confusion among China’s political landscape. The country’s defense minister and former foreign minister have disappeared from public view, and two generals from the nuclear rocket force have been relieved of their duties.
For those who closely follow China’s politics, understanding the inner workings of the elite is a daunting task. “The system is a black box,” says Matt Pottinger, who served as Donald Trump’s deputy national security adviser. Pottinger speculates that upheaval is a deliberate strategy of Xi’s rule. During his 11 years in power, Xi has purged a significant number of party members, generals, and other officials. The recent personnel changes may be a proactive move to maintain his dominance.
Pottinger compares Xi’s approach to that of Joseph Stalin, suggesting that Xi may also remain in power until his death. However, the centralized power under Xi is likely to result in policy oscillations and miscalculations. This was evident in the rapid reversal of zero-Covid policies last year and may be seen again in Xi’s response to the ongoing property crisis.
Understanding China’s leadership requires holding multiple contrasting ideas simultaneously. While Xi has a stronghold on the political system, he faces challenges such as a struggling economy and growing discontent among the public. People are increasingly critical of his leadership, referring to him indirectly and making remarks about his childhood trauma’s impact on the economy. Despite these criticisms, Pottinger does not believe Xi is in danger of being overthrown.
Joe Biden has suggested that Xi’s predicament makes China more dangerous. Pottinger agrees, noting that China’s economic slowdown could prompt Xi to take more risks geopolitically. Pottinger, known for his hardline stance on China, believes that strength is crucial in dealing with Beijing and preventing conflict over Taiwan. He argues that appeasement signals weakness and should be avoided.
Pottinger’s assessment of China’s actions towards US officials reinforces his stance. He believes that China views the US as weak and, therefore, treats American officials poorly. He warns against pursuing detente with Beijing and suggests that now is not the time for reconciliation. Pottinger believes that China, like Russia under Putin, will respond to a conciliatory approach with aggression. He feels that Xi Jinping is feeling emboldened despite the country’s weak economy.
Pottinger, whose family has a background in virology, was deeply concerned about Covid-19. He criticizes China’s response to the virus, calling it dishonest and malicious. He believes that the lab leak theory is becoming more plausible, citing an increasing amount of circumstantial evidence. In the past, Pottinger delivered a speech in Mandarin addressing the Chinese public, emphasizing the democratic traditions of protest in China’s history. However, China responded by imposing sanctions on him and other Trump administration figures.
While some Trump-era initiatives on China did not materialize, Pottinger remains concerned about the influence of platforms like TikTok, which he sees as tools used by the Communist Party to divide democracies. He believes that the US should ban TikTok under existing laws but lacks the political will to do so.
Regarding US-China relations, Pottinger believes that the US has the leverage over China. He argues that China depends on the US for capital, access to markets, and technology. He believes that Xi Jinping’s goal is to make China a global exporting factory for high technology. However, Pottinger believes that the US can easily thwart these plans.
Looking ahead to US policy on China, Pottinger offers a pessimistic view. He believes that de-risking is necessary and warns against underestimating China’s capabilities. However, he also emphasizes that China still relies heavily on the US and that the country can hinder China’s ambitions if it takes a strong stance.
In summary, understanding China’s elite politics is a complex task, and Xi Jinping’s rule is marked by purges and power centralization. This may result in policy oscillations and miscalculations. Pottinger argues for a strong approach in dealing with China and warns against appeasement. He believes that China is becoming more aggressive and that the US has the leverage to counter its ambitions.
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