Traveling abroad can offer a tempting escape for leaders facing domestic challenges. In this case, Rishi Sunak’s trip to the G20 summit in New Delhi provides him with a much-needed distance from the pressing issues of rising living costs, struggling public services, and poor poll ratings. On the world stage, he will receive more respect from his international counterparts than from his own MPs, serving as a boost to his self-esteem. However, the actual outcomes of this G20 summit are uncertain and unlikely to be significant due to the divisions among Western and non-Western members regarding the conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, it has been reported that China’s President, Xi Jinping, will not attend, dispelling earlier hopes of a bilateral meeting between Sunak and Xi.
Ben Wallace, in his farewell letter to the Prime Minister, warned of a more insecure and unstable world in the coming decade. While we hope this prediction is incorrect, it is crucial to develop a robust foreign and security policy to address potential risks. Some of these risks include a weakening Western support for Ukraine, a vengeful return of Donald Trump to the White House, and a potential Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. Currently, the UK’s foreign and security policy is unclear and inconsistent, reflecting the scattered approach of the 13-year Conservative government. Under David Cameron, the focus was on economic gains, with the diplomatic corps acting as salespeople for Britain. Boris Johnson and Liz Truss prioritized a carefree approach to Brexit, believing that Britain could act independently and do as it pleased in the world. However, the reality has proven these notions wrong, and the concept of “Global Britain” has been quietly abandoned by Sunak.
During the Tories’ tenure, both the soft and hard power of the UK have diminished. Savage cuts to the aid budget have caused Andrew Mitchell, the development minister, to admit that the UK is no longer a “development superpower.” The global influence of the BBC’s World Service has also declined due to output and staff reductions. The chaotic turnover of Prime Ministers at Number 10, with three different leaders in a single year, has led to concern that the UK is transforming into an unstable nation. Although Sunak is viewed as a more reliable performer on the world stage than his predecessors, the perception that his time in power is limited discourages international actors from developing relationships with him.
Proponents of Sunak argue that he has successfully placed himself and the UK at the center of major global debates by convening an international summit on the safety of artificial intelligence. This summit, which will take place at Bletchley Park in November, is seen as a significant achievement that could position Britain as a leader in AI regulation. However, this desire may also reflect concerns about Sunak being viewed as a weak Prime Minister both domestically and abroad.
While the UK has been a supporter of Ukraine and provided significant contributions, it has revealed weaknesses in its hard power capabilities. The British army is shrinking, and the lack of adequate equipment for Ukrainian needs is evident. Ben Wallace emphasized the necessity of a strong military as a fundamental requirement, rather than an optional extra. The appointment of Grant Shapps as the new Defense Secretary, despite his lack of expertise in the area, has raised concerns among Conservative MPs and military figures.
Sunak’s allies describe him as a pragmatic leader who approaches foreign policy from the perspectives of problem-solving and relationship management. Number 10 defends its invitation to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, emphasizing the need to engage with powerful nations, even those with concerning human rights records and global ambitions. However, this stance towards China has sparked internal divisions within the Conservative party. Some, including former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith, accuse the government of appeasing Beijing. The Foreign Affairs Select Committee also criticized the classified nature of the UK government’s China strategy, suggesting a lack of coherence.
Sunak is enthusiastic about strengthening ties with India, recognizing its rapid economic growth, rising geopolitical influence, and familial connections with the UK. Nevertheless, tensions exist within this relationship, particularly regarding India’s ambivalence towards the war in Ukraine and its increased dependence on Russian oil.
Traditionally, the UK has closely aligned itself with the US, but there is a growing belief within Whitehall that the US can no longer be relied on as an unwavering ally. The cool relations with Joe Biden’s administration necessitate considering how to handle a potential return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office in the future.
In a financially constrained and unstable world, it is crucial for the UK to be savvy in building and maintaining friendships, especially with other liberal democracies that share similar values. This brings us to the UK’s relationships with EU countries. While relations have improved since Sunak’s leadership, there remains a lingering coolness. The Windsor agreement, resolving trade disputes between mainland UK and Northern Ireland, has been a significant achievement. However, a sense of unease still pervades, and Sunak’s attempts to improve relations with EU countries have not been reciprocated.
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