By David Morgan
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Republican Mike Johnson, the inexperienced Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, faces a critical test of his ability to unite his divided majority as he strives to prevent a partial government shutdown in just over two weeks.
The fourth-term Louisiana lawmaker will attempt to pass three spending bills for 2024, which could help appease staunch conservatives, before turning to a stopgap measure to fund federal agencies beyond November 17.
However, tensions between hardline party members and centrists, which led to the removal of Johnson’s predecessor earlier this month, threaten to undermine the bills that aim to fund the legislative branch, transportation, housing and urban development, as well as the Department of the Interior and the environment until September 30.
“They are at risk,” warned Representative Don Bacon, a centrist Republican from Nebraska, who believes that demands for significant spending cuts from hardliners could further divide the conference.
Johnson has already addressed the demands of hardliners by calling for a vote on a $14.3 billion bill to aid Israel in its conflict with Hamas. He has separated this aid from funding for Ukraine, despite objections from Democrats and some moderate Republicans. Additionally, he has responded to hardliners’ calls by cutting funds allocated to the Internal Revenue Service in order to pay for the aid.
Senate Majority Leader , the leading Democrat in Congress, expressed deep concerns about this move, stating, “The new Speaker knows perfectly well that if you want to help Israel, you can’t propose legislation that is full of poison pills.”
‘LITMUS TEST’
These measures will serve as an early test of Johnson’s ability to reach agreements within his narrow 221-212 majority and collaborate with Democrats, who hold the Senate majority and the Oval Office.
“This will be a litmus test,” said Representative Ryan Zinke, a Republican member of the House committee responsible for setting spending priorities. “There’s going to be some groaning and moaning, but I think they’ll pass.”
The U.S. budget deficit soared to $1.7 trillion in the fiscal year that ended on September 30, the highest outside the COVID era. Rising interest rates, the high costs of Social Security and Medicare programs, and the lasting effects of a 2017 tax cut have pushed the nation’s debt over $33 trillion.
Hardliners are pushing for spending cuts and policy victories, such as stricter border security, to be included in any temporary funding measure, known as a continuing resolution (CR), in order to avoid a partial government shutdown.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted by a small group of hardliners after agreeing to pass a CR with Democratic support. The ensuing intraparty conflict has made many Republicans hesitant to engage in another shutdown battle.
“We just wasted three weeks with whatever this last goat rodeo was,” said Representative Kelly Armstrong of South Dakota. “It’s very difficult for members in tough districts to go home and explain any reason for a shutdown right now.”
This increases the likelihood of Johnson ultimately opting for a “clean” CR without any conditions or spending cuts.
Johnson has proposed a CR that could extend until January or April, including a 1% across-the-board spending cut, which would also affect defense spending.
House Republicans have put forward full-year bills by reallocating previous allocations for Democratic programs to their own priorities. These proposals would result in a net spending of $34.8 billion on Interior and the environment, representing a 10% overall cut with a 39% reduction for the Environmental Protection Agency, according to a Republican fact sheet.
Through a similar reallocation of funds, House Republicans would spend a net $65.2 billion on transportation, housing, and urban development, which is 25% below current levels.
The third bill, which funds congressional operations, may face opposition from Republicans who argue that a 4.6% cost-of-living adjustment for lawmakers, their first in 15 years, is unconstitutional.
Even if the House Republican bills are passed, they have no chance of success in the Democratic-led Senate or being signed into law by Democratic President Joe Biden.
However, Republicans believe that by passing all 12 bills for fiscal year 2024, which began on October 1, they can strengthen their position in spending negotiations with the Senate.
“We need to utilize the new opportunity with the new Speaker to take steps to at least demonstrate that we’re taking this seriously,” said Representative Bob Good, a hardline conservative from Virginia.
While the House has focused on passing spending bills with only Republican votes, the Senate has been working on measures that garner bipartisan support.
Some Republicans argue that the severity of the spending cuts sought by hardliners make it unlikely for the legislation to become law.
“I wish these people played chess a little more,” remarked Bacon. “If they could think two or three moves deeper, we’d be in a better spot.”
(Reporting by David Morgan; Editing by Scott Malone and Alistair Bell)
