On Friday, House Republicans made an unexpected move after nominating Representative Jim Jordan for speaker. They conducted a secret-ballot vote, asking lawmakers if they would support Jordan in a public vote on the House floor.
Unfortunately for Jordan, the results were not in his favor. 55 members of the House Republican conference, nearly a quarter, stated that they would not back Jordan. With a narrow majority, Jordan could only afford to lose a maximum of three Republican votes. It looked like Jordan’s bid for speaker was failing faster than Representative Steve Scalise’s, who dropped out earlier in the week due to internal party opposition.
However, by this afternoon, Jordan had managed to turn the tide in his favor. The number of Republicans who initially opposed him had decreased from 55 to 20 when the House voted. He secured a total of 200 votes, but he needs 217 to win. Jordan aims to replicate former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s strategy by gradually wearing down his opposition through painstakingly secured votes. McCarthy needed 15 ballots to secure the speakership, but Jordan may require fewer. Several Republicans who voted against him on the floor have expressed a willingness to reconsider or not interfere if he gets close to the 217 threshold.
If Jordan manages to secure those final votes, his election would be a significant victory for hardline GOP members. Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, who led the charge to topple McCarthy, aimed to replace him with a more combative and ideologically conservative leader. Trump, who endorsed Jordan, would finally have a House speaker fully dedicated to his cause. Although McCarthy and the previous speaker, Paul Ryan, accommodated Trump, Jordan has been a steadfast champion, as documented by the House committee investigating the events of January 6.
The potential election of Jordan would mirror Trump’s own rise to power, with establishment Republicans begrudgingly falling in line with a leader many of them initially rejected. Throughout Trump’s presidency, GOP lawmakers privately criticized him while publicly offering unwavering support. This pattern has now played out with Jordan, as the Republicans who initially opposed him in the secret ballot were unwilling to openly go against him in the recorded floor vote.
Some of these Republicans had made awkward reversals in the lead-up to the vote. Representative Ann Wagner of Missouri, who had vehemently opposed Jordan, drastically changed her stance, citing his ability to address concerns and support key issues. Other senior Republicans who initially vowed to block Jordan also publicly shifted their position.
Nevertheless, Jordan still falls short of the required votes. The question now is whether he can bridge the gap in subsequent ballots or if the group of Republican holdouts will grow stronger. It’s likely that Jordan’s opposition will fade away, as this faction of Republicans is more pragmatic and committed to stable governance compared to the conservative group that pushed out McCarthy.
The absence of a House speaker for the past two weeks has paralyzed the chamber during pivotal domestic and international crises. Without action from Congress, the federal government will shut down in a month, and assistance for Israel and Ukraine remains stalled. Some Jordan skeptics believe resolving the impasse by electing a conservative leader is necessary, even if they consider him ill-suited for the position.
Democrats saw the potential election of a polarizing Republican like Jordan, combined with the collapse of GOP governance, as an opportunity to regain control of the chamber next year. However, they were appalled at the prospect of Republicans elevating a far-right ideologue who many labeled as an insurrectionist. Jordan, a former wrestler known for his confrontational approach, gained prominence by opposing bipartisan cooperation. Representative Jan Schakowsky of Illinois, a long-serving member of the House, expressed her strong opposition to Jordan’s candidacy before the vote.
Republicans expressed concerns about Jordan’s record and the potential electoral vulnerability he poses. Just before the vote, Representative Anthony D’Esposito, a Republican representing a swing district, remained undecided. In the end, he joined 19 other GOP lawmakers in supporting someone other than Jordan.
At the conclusion of the vote, Jordan had received as many opposing votes as McCarthy did initially in January. It remains uncertain whether Jordan can rally the necessary support through private lobbying and dealmaking as McCarthy did. Despite the mounting defections, Jordan appeared calm and collected during the roll call. Following the vote, he conferred with supporters, including McCarthy, and the House recessed for Republicans to determine their next course of action.
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