President Biden’s support among nonwhite voters has significantly declined over the past year, according to national polls conducted by The New York Times and Siena College. In a compilation of polls from 2022 and 2023, Mr. Biden leads Donald J. Trump by just 53% to 28% among registered nonwhite voters. This is a significant drop compared to 2020, when Mr. Biden won over 70% of nonwhite voters. If he cannot regain this support by next November, it will continue the trend of declining Democratic strength among these voters.
The lackluster support among nonwhite voters is the main reason why the race between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump is so close in early national surveys, despite Mr. Biden performing as well among white voters as he did four years ago. However, there is still ample time for Mr. Biden to regain the support of his former voters. The data suggests that he could approach his 2020 standing by appealing to those who previously backed him.
Nevertheless, there is a possibility that Mr. Biden’s standing will remain below the levels of the last presidential election. Democrats have been losing ground among nonwhite voters in nearly every election over the past decade, despite the assumption that racially charged issues would result in increased support. This weak support for Mr. Biden could result in low turnout, as it did in 2022, even if many young and less engaged voters ultimately do not vote for Mr. Trump.
Mr. Biden’s vulnerabilities, such as his age and concerns over inflation, may further exacerbate the trend. Nonwhite voters tend to be younger and less affluent than white voters, making them more susceptible to these issues. Overall, Mr. Biden’s approval rating is just 47% among nonwhite voters, and his favorability rating is only 54%.
Other factors, such as abortion and threats to democracy, may also contribute to additional losses among Black and Hispanic voters, who are generally more conservative than white Biden voters. These issues may not resonate as strongly with voters who are living paycheck to paycheck. In fact, Mr. Biden is underperforming the most among nonwhite voters making less than $100,000 per year, erasing the historically higher support Democrats have enjoyed among lower-income nonwhite voters.
The data also reveals an education gap among nonwhite voters, with Mr. Biden losing ground among those without a college degree and those who are less affluent. Among nonwhite college graduates, Mr. Biden still maintains a 61-23 lead, but among those without a four-year degree, his lead narrows to just 49-31.
If this education gap persists until the election, it could indicate a broader political realignment where working-class voters, of all races, are shifting their loyalties away from the Democrats due to material interests. This trend could be a consequence of Mr. Trump’s conservative populism.
Mr. Biden’s weakness among nonwhite voters is evident across various demographic categories and racial groups. He holds a 72-11 lead among Black voters and a 47-35 lead among Hispanic voters. The sample size for Asian voters is too small for conclusive data, but nonwhite voters who are not Black or Hispanic back Mr. Biden by a slim margin of 40-39. However, in all cases, Mr. Biden’s support is significantly lower than his standing in the last election.
This decline in support among nonwhite voters is consistent with other high-quality national surveys, which show Mr. Biden performing poorly (or even worse) among nonwhite voters. On average, Mr. Biden leads by 74-19 among Black voters and by 50-40 among Hispanic voters across 12 national surveys conducted so far this year.
The shift in support is also reflected in how nonwhite respondents who participated in the Times/Siena survey say they voted in 2020. While the majority of nonwhite respondents backed Mr. Biden in the last election, many of them now report being undecided or not planning to vote in a hypothetical rematch between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump. Additionally, a small but notable percentage of nonwhite Biden voters have switched their support to Mr. Trump. In contrast, the majority of white Biden and Trump supporters from 2020 plan to stick with their previous candidate.
The dissatisfaction among younger and less engaged voters who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 raises the possibility that his weakness in the polls may result in lower turnout among Black and Hispanic voters, rather than a massive shift towards Mr. Trump. This was evident in the last midterm elections when Democrats maintained their usual support among Black voters, but the racial turnout gap reached new highs.
When considering recent voters in the Times/Siena survey, Mr. Biden’s lead among nonwhite voters increases to 57-27, and there is potential for further growth to 63-29 if undecided and dissenting voters are allocated based on their reported vote choice in the last presidential election. These figures are closer to Mr. Biden’s standing among nonwhite voters in 2020.
However, even after accounting for the remaining undecided voters, these figures would still mark the lowest support for a Democratic leader among Black and Hispanic voters since Walter Mondale in 1984.
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