Immigration is emerging as a central issue in the upcoming 2024 presidential campaign, and this poses a significant challenge for President Biden’s re-election prospects. In order to have a fighting chance at securing a second term, Biden must strike a delicate balance between reassuring swing voters of his commitment to border security and also catering to the demands of the left for a more permissive immigration policy. However, recent polls indicate that immigration is Biden’s weakest issue, even worse than inflation and crime. Only 35% of registered voters, and a mere 28% of independents, approve of his handling of immigration.
This disapproval comes despite the apparent decrease in illegal migrant crossings at the southern border since the termination of Title 42. The Biden administration has replaced the Trump-era public-health rule with a new policy that combines punitive deterrence measures with limited legal pathways for asylum seekers. While Biden has highlighted the decline in illegal crossings, the official numbers fail to tell the whole story. The opening of more “legal” pathways has resulted in a decrease in “illegal” migrations, as these same individuals are now classified as “legal.” However, there are concerns about the eligibility of asylum grantees, as the administration is utilizing a flawed and untested phone app to admit 40,000 asylum seekers per month.
Despite the decrease in illegal border crossings, voter disapproval of Biden’s handling of immigration remains high. Furthermore, illegal crossings are still significantly higher compared to the numbers during the Trump administration. White House officials are concerned that conditions at the border could worsen, exacerbating the existing concerns. Additionally, the new policy has done little to help Biden neutralize this politically toxic issue. Even Democratic mayors in cities such as New York, Denver, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC are losing faith in the administration’s ability to contain the border crisis. This has caused a rift within the Democratic Party, with New York’s Democratic mayor, Eric Adams, accusing the Biden administration of neglecting the issue.
These internal criticisms, along with polling data that shows Trump leading in the 2024 presidential race, demonstrate the potential political risk for Biden. Trump’s advantage on immigration is clear, with a significant percentage of voters believing that the immigration system has worsened under Biden compared to the time under Trump. If the border crisis worsens, there is a real possibility that Trump and Republicans could exploit this issue to their advantage in the 2024 election, potentially leading to their victory in the presidency and the US Senate.
Given this situation, some experts argue that Biden should adopt a strategy that “out-Trumps Trump on immigration.” This would involve doubling down on border security measures to hold Democrats accountable for the issue. However, Biden faces the challenge of toughening border security without alienating progressive voters, who have criticized his post-Title 42 measures and have called for a reconsideration.
Considering the current political landscape, it is highly unlikely that Congress will pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill. Therefore, Biden must take control of the narrative on immigration. This entails focusing on border security by strictly enforcing existing laws, advocating for physical barriers, tightening legal pathways for asylum seekers, and imposing stricter consequences for illegal entrants. Simultaneously, Biden should continue to push for a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers while emphasizing to progressives that securing the border is a prerequisite for expanding legal immigration and ensuring the proper processing of migrants with genuine fears of persecution.
Without adopting this approach, Biden risks losing battleground border and near-border states in the 2024 election. This strategy proved successful in the 2022 midterms for Democratic Senators Mark Kelly and Catherine Cortez Masto. Striking the right balance on the immigration issue is undoubtedly challenging for any president, but failure to do so could result in Biden becoming a one-term president.
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