Biden’s Critical Mission: Restoring US Influence in the Middle East | The Guardian Editorial

In the wake of the devastating actions carried out by Hamas in southern Israel, resulting in the death of at least 1,300 people, with ongoing airstrikes in Gaza causing a death toll of at least 3,000, and with 199 individuals, including children, still being held as hostages, the horror of this situation is compounded by the potential for more violence to ensue.

To address the escalating crisis in Gaza and the possibility of a regional catastrophe involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and other actors, the United States is employing multiple strategies. Deploying two aircraft carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean, engaging in continuous shuttle diplomacy by the secretary of state, and organizing a presidential visit to Israel are among the initiatives aimed at averting a greater humanitarian disaster. Though officially intended to demonstrate the US’s solidarity with Israel and offer Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu much-needed political support, this visit also serves as a warning to Hezbollah and Iran, while simultaneously exerting influence over Mr. Netanyahu. Notably, the US agreed to the trip only after Israel committed to providing humanitarian aid and establishing safe areas for civilians, in an effort to mitigate the impact of bombings.

However, the joint statement released by the two countries regarding their plan for aid delivery is notably restrained, and even if implemented, there is no guarantee of its effectiveness. Reports from the ground indicate that despite Israel’s assurance of restoring the water supply to southern Gaza, only minimal amounts are actually being delivered. While aid is crucial, its impact is limited as long as airstrikes persist.

Equally significant is the US’s insistence that Israel carefully consider its plan for Gaza, taking into account the country’s own turbulent experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq. President Biden publicly cautioned against occupying Gaza, an act that would likely have severe consequences. This warning effectively postponed a ground incursion, as indicated by IDF spokesperson Richard Hecht’s statement that the next phase of the conflict may deviate from expectations.

Events unfolding in Gaza will undoubtedly influence the situation in the north. Israel recently issued an unprecedented evacuation order for residents near the Lebanon border, due to the escalating rocket attacks, missile strikes, and border clashes that have already occurred. Since the 2006 war, both Hezbollah and Israel have exercised caution, mindful of the heavy toll it took on Lebanese civilians. However, Hezbollah has steadily increased its military capabilities and tested boundaries. The group has specified two red lines: the forced displacement of a large number of Palestinians from Gaza (despite Egypt’s refusal to accept them) and a ground invasion aimed at eradicating Hamas, which aligns with Israel’s objectives. Iran supports Hezbollah and has warned of opening “multiple fronts” against Israel if it continues to kill civilians in Gaza.

While Iran aims to preserve its primary proxy force, Hezbollah, it also seeks to prevent the elimination of Hamas. If the latter becomes likely, experts suggest that Iran may mobilize Iraqi militias to deploy to Syria or Lebanon. The US has issued clear warnings to Tehran, urging non-involvement in the conflict, while emphasizing its own desire to avoid escalation. However, the situation on the ground may have its own momentum, and despite the reluctance of both the US and Iran to become further entangled, the risk of further escalation remains.

The relentless violence witnessed this month can be traced back to the flawed belief held by the US and other governments that the Middle East conflict was unsolvable but manageable, and could be pushed to the sidelines. Many voices warned against this perspective, and now, the crisis appears even more unmanageable. Nevertheless, it is precisely because of this complexity that the US and other stakeholders must make every effort to seek a resolution.