President Biden’s smooth sailing may come to an end as he prepares for the 2024 general election. With the majority of top Democrats supporting him and the Republican nomination likely revolving around Donald J. Trump’s legal issues, Biden now faces a primary of his own. He must work to garner the support of skeptical Democratic voters, promote his accomplishments, address concerns about his age, and dismiss Democratic challengers without causing any unnecessary drama.
Among his challengers is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine activist with a Democratic background who has surprisingly gained strength in early polls. Despite spreading conspiracy theories and associating with right-wing figures and wealthy donors, Kennedy has managed to secure up to 20 percent support among Democrats in some surveys. This serves as a reminder that left-leaning voters are open to a Biden alternative and highlights the president’s vulnerabilities.
To strengthen Biden’s position, the White House is planning a summer of events to promote his legislative achievements. The president is embarking on his first overnight campaign trip since announcing his re-election bid, focusing on fundraising in Northern California. He has also gained endorsements from major environmental and labor organizations. Additionally, his campaign has started running online advertisements highlighting his record and even deployed a billboard truck to circulate around the Capitol.
However, some allies of Biden express concerns about his campaign’s understanding of the depth of issues with Democratic voters who have consistently shown preference for him not seeking re-election. There is lingering unease about inflation and his management of the economy. Consequently, some allies have taken it upon themselves to launch independent voter outreach campaigns to boost support for Biden.
Recently, Mayor Paige Cognetti of Scranton, PA, and three other Pennsylvania mayors embarked on a road trip across the state to promote projects funded by the Biden administration. This initiative was driven by concerns that voters were uninformed about these projects. They met with Lt. Gov. Austin Davis in Harrisburg, who acknowledged Biden’s accomplishments but expressed worries about limited awareness among voters. Davis recounted encounters with Philadelphia voters who believed that the country was better off under Trump, indicating that the Biden administration has done a poor job of communicating its achievements.
Kennedy’s popularity in the polls can be attributed to his famous family name, according to a CNN poll. This suggests that a significant number of Democratic voters are willing to choose anyone other than Biden. For example, a recent poll in Maryland found that 41 percent of Democrats preferred their governor, Wes Moore, over Biden, even though Moore supports Biden’s re-election.
If Kennedy manages to maintain his level of support, he could pose a significant challenge to Biden in the primaries. Some argue that Kennedy may find success in New Hampshire, where Biden has alienated some core supporters by rearranging the Democratic primary schedule to prioritize South Carolina. There are concerns that Biden may skip the New Hampshire primary, reinforcing the perception of disregard towards the state. In protest, independent voters may cast their ballots for Kennedy, potentially dealing Biden an early but merely symbolic defeat.
Kennedy, a lawyer who gained prominence as an environmental activist, has gained support from conservative figures like Elon Musk and David Sacks, despite adopting positions contrary to mainstream Democratic views. He has opposed an assault weapons ban, spread pro-Russian talking points about Ukraine, suggested presidential campaigns are rigged, and propagated vaccine conspiracy theories. A super PAC supporting Kennedy has raised over $5.7 million, and his campaign is led by Dennis Kucinich, emphasizing Kennedy’s ability to unite Americans through conciliation and compassion.
Aside from fundraising efforts, Biden’s re-election campaign has had a limited public presence since its formal rollout. Campaign officials have been scouting for office space in Wilmington, Delaware, for a campaign headquarters set to open in July. The campaign is expected to expand its staff once offices open and has plans for a summer tour called “Investing in America.” During this tour, Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, their spouses, and cabinet members will travel the country to promote legislation Biden has signed to fund infrastructure and climate projects nationwide. The administration believes that positive local news coverage, followed by substantial advertising efforts, will educate skeptical Democrats and wayward independent voters about Biden’s achievements and why he deserves a second term.
While it is not unusual for an incumbent president to face dissent within their party before being renominated, Biden must address the concerns of Democratic voters and solidify his support base before the primary season begins. Failure to do so could lead to challenges from within his own party and potential setbacks in key primary states.
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