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June 29 (UPI) — The July 4 holiday is expected to set new records for travel, but the surge in demand may pose challenges for air travel.
According to travel club AAA, more than 50 million individuals in the United States are projected to travel more than 50 miles during the upcoming holiday period, which falls on a Tuesday this year. If the forecast proves accurate, this will be a record-breaking figure.
AAA estimates that air travel will increase by 11.2% compared to last year and by 6.6% compared to 2019, pre-pandemic levels.
“The share of air travelers in the overall holiday forecast this year is an impressive 8.2% — the highest percentage in nearly 20 years,” stated AAA.
The number of individuals passing through security checkpoints on Tuesday indicates a return to pre-pandemic travel levels, although airlines may be struggling to keep up with the surge in demand since travel restrictions were lifted.
In 2020, around 500,000 people passed through security checkpoints during this time, whereas this year the number reached 2.4 million on Monday. However, air travel has been hampered by a shortage of air traffic controllers and recent adverse weather conditions.
Data from flight tracker FlightAware reveals that a total of 1,198 flights within, into, or out of the United States were canceled on Wednesday, with an additional 7,032 delayed. This marked the third consecutive day of over 10,000 combined delays and cancellations, as major airports like Chicago’s O’Hare and New York’s JFK International faced challenges due to severe weather conditions and the influx of travelers.
As of Thursday morning, 512 flights were already delayed and 350 were canceled.
The National Weather Service has issued warnings for excessive heat in the southern United States, while states east of the Mississippi may experience rain during the upcoming holiday.
Additionally, several states in the Midwest are dealing with smoky conditions from Canadian wildfires, which are expected to drift eastward, reaching New York.
Those planning a road trip can take solace in the fact that gasoline prices are relatively low. AAA had initially predicted a 6% increase in road travel compared to last year during the Memorial Day holiday due to lower prices at the pump.
According to federal data, the average retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline on July 4 last year was $4.77, although prices were gradually declining from the mid-June peak of $5.01.
Adjusting for inflation, retail gasoline prices are currently about 30 cents lower than at the same time in 2019.
“It certainly feels like pre-pandemic times,” said Patrick DeHaan, the senior petroleum analyst at Chicago-based GasBuddy. “However, I don’t expect travel forecasts to lead to a significant surge in gasoline demand.”
Federal data indicates that, on average, 9.2 million barrels per day of gasoline were supplied to the market during the four-week period leading up to June 16, serving as a proxy for implied demand. This is approximately half a million barrels per day less than the corresponding week in 2019.
DeHaan believes that a surge above pre-pandemic demand levels is not likely to occur in the near future, despite some relief at the pump.
He also noted that gas prices are expected to remain favorable for consumers, as other commodities remain within a range-bound pattern.
Currently, only Mississippi has an average state-level gas price below $3 per gallon, although more states in the southern United States may join in as the July 4 holiday approaches.
