The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released an El Niño advisory, indicating the arrival of the climatic condition. This year’s El Niño occurred one to two months earlier than most, and there is a 56% chance it will be considered strong and a 25% chance it will reach supersized levels, said NOAA’s climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux. An El Niño occurs as the Pacific Ocean near the equator warms and changes weather patterns globally. The warming of the Pacific during an El Niño often shifts the patterns of airborne paths for storms, causing different weather patterns depending upon the region.
An El Niño is not a guarantee of wet weather in California, but the state does have a greater chance of a rainy winter during high-level El Niño events. The state endured a long-lasting La Niña event, El Niño’s cooling flip side that exacerbated drought in some regions and augmented the Atlantic hurricane season. Fortunately, El Niño’s arrival brings relief, and the world may experience an opposite shift in weather patterns. Drought-stricken countries in northeast Africa and parts of southern Asia welcome beneficial rainfall. However, hotter and drier conditions will affect other parts of Asia, spurring wildfires and other natural disasters.
Past economic studies have shown that El Niño causes less global and U.S. damage than La Niña. One study indicated that El Niño had a “growth-enhancing effect” on the U.S. and Europe, while being terrible for Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Nevertheless, another more recent study puts the cost of natural disasters spurred by El Niño events in the trillions of dollars, with even the 1997-1998 El Niño leaving $45 billion in damages.
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