Fantasy football managers have been gravitating towards a wide-receiver-heavy draft strategy, but the allure of a promising rookie running back can still captivate their attention. Despite frustrations with tandem backfields and hold-outs, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs have sparked excitement among fans due to their potential. However, before jumping on the bandwagon, it’s crucial to consider their current ADP numbers and assess whether the benefits outweigh the risks.
If you’re contemplating whether to draft Robinson in the first round, the answer is a resounding yes. His coach, Arthur Smith, embodies the traditional smash-mouth football style and emphasizes the running game as a foundation for the Atlanta Falcons. Robinson is expected to receive significant volume with Atlanta, and we anticipate him having a minimum of 300 touches. In the previous season, the Falcons led the league in rushing attempts and ranked third in total rushing yards, guaranteeing Robinson a massive workload compared to other players in his position. Furthermore, Robinson’s involvement in the passing game is also promising. Despite his limited targets at Texas, he demonstrated solid ability with an average of 13.5 yards per catch and six receiving touchdowns. The Falcons hope to utilize his elusive skills when he receives the ball in open space, adding another dimension to their offense.
On the other hand, the hype surrounding Gibbs in Detroit has raised expectations to new heights. The Lions traded up for Gibbs in the first round and subsequently traded D’Andre Swift to Philadelphia, indicating their faith in his versatility and explosiveness. Nonetheless, a fantasy manager’s dilemma lies in the potential discrepancy between the hype and reality. While Gibbs may occasionally line up in the rushing attack, many believe his primary role will be as a receiver, particularly in the slot or sometimes on the outside. Additionally, the Lions recently signed former Bears starting running back David Montgomery to a lucrative deal, suggesting that Gibbs may be limited to a third-down back role at best. Is it worth investing in a part-timer in the third or fourth round?
As a fantasy manager, it’s crucial to resist getting caught up in the hype surrounding rookies. Instead, focus on the opportunities they have within their respective teams. In this case, Robinson seems like a safer bet while offering considerable upside. Gibbs, on the other hand, presents potential but in a more limited capacity. Therefore, if you intend to draft a running back early on, Robinson provides a more secure investment, leaving the other managers in your league to scramble for part-time options.
Howard Bender, the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com, provides valuable insights and advice on fantasy football. Connect with him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and tune in to the “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel for further discussions. For comprehensive fantasy football guidance, visit Fantasy-Alarm.com.
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