The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Nov. 10 that Ukraine’s economic outlook for 2023 has surpassed expectations. According to a statement released by the IMF, the 2023 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine has been upgraded to 4.5%, an increase from the previous prediction of 1-3% made in July.
Gavin Gray, an official from the IMF, praised the Ukrainian economy for its resilience and signs of stabilization, citing recent economic developments as indicators of a stronger-than-expected economic recovery in 2023. Gray led the IMF team in negotiations with Ukrainian officials in Warsaw, Poland, to discuss the second review of Ukraine’s four-year funding agreement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
The EFF program is designed to maintain Ukraine’s economic stability while enabling the country to implement reforms over the next four years, with the goal of facilitating its accession to the EU. The funding agreement grants access to $15.6 billion and was initially approved in March 2023, with the first review completed in June.
Gray confirmed that the recent negotiations in Warsaw resulted in a staff-level agreement on the second review, and the IMF Executive Board is expected to consider the agreement in the coming weeks. Upon Board approval, the agreement will release a tranche of $900 million in funding.
Despite the stability of Ukraine’s financial system, Gray urged continued vigilance, particularly in light of war-related uncertainty. The IMF noted that Ukraine had met its quantitative performance criteria for end-June and indicative targets for end-September.
According to Gray, the steadfast implementation of structural reforms, including governance, anti-corruption, and public investment management, will be indispensable in establishing the groundwork for robust and sustained growth.
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