Differences in 2023 Production Guidance: Rivian vs. Lucid | Investor’s Business Daily Update

Rivian (RIVN) has raised its forecast for electric vehicle (EV) production for the full year. This comes after third-quarter revenue growth surpassed expectations. Rivian’s stock saw an increase in extended trading.

On the other hand, Lucid (LCID) lowered its 2023 production outlook following a more substantial revenue decline than anticipated in the third quarter. Lucid’s stock experienced a significant decline in late trade.




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Rivian has also announced plans to broaden the availability of its commercial electric vans to more customers beyond its key customer, Amazon (AMZN).

Both Rivian and Lucid specialize in producing high-end electric vehicles, but they are also facing significant financial challenges. Concerns regarding a potential slowdown in the global EV market escalated in October, with major auto companies like Tesla (TSLA) issuing warnings about demand.




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Rivian Earnings

Estimates: According to FactSet, analysts were expecting Rivian to reduce net losses to $1.34 per share from $1.57 a year ago and for revenue to increase by 146% year over year to $1.321 billion.

Results: Rivian reported a loss of $1.19 per share, lower than expected, and revenue of $1,337 million, slightly exceeding projections. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of reduced year-over-year losses and the second consecutive billion-dollar revenue quarter for the EV startup.

Rivian has revised its 2023 production guidance to 54,000 electric vehicles, up from 52,000, and also improved its 2023 EBITDA guidance and reduced capex spending guidance for the full year.

In the third quarter, Rivian produced 16,304 electric vehicles and delivered 15,564. The company’s product lineup includes the R1S SUV, R1T truck, and a commercial delivery van with Amazon as its main customer.

Rivian Stock

Rivian’s stock saw a 3.3% increase in late trading and closed up 1.4% at 17.42 on the stock market today, rebounding from earlier losses. Despite this, Rivian’s stock remains below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after experiencing over a 30% decline in October, according to the MarketSmith chart.

 

Lucid Earnings

Estimates: Analysts forecasted Lucid to lower net losses to 36 cents per share from 40 cents a year ago and for revenue to decrease by 5% year over year to $185.1 million.

Results: Lucid reported a loss of 28 cents per share, better than expected, but saw revenue drop nearly 30% to $137.8 million, which was far worse than anticipated.

Lucid also adjusted its 2023 production guidance and reported delivering 1,457 electric vehicles in the third quarter, despite facing challenges due to price cuts and substantial losses on each vehicle produced.

Lucid Stock

Lucid’s stock fell 4.2% in late trade and closed down 0.5% at 4.30 on Tuesday, remaining near all-time lows.

Following a promising debut, several EV startups, including Lucid and Fisker (FSR), are now classified as penny stocks, trading below the $5 price level, signaling the challenges faced by young companies in the capital-intensive EV manufacturing industry.

Fisker is set to report its Q3 earnings on Wednesday.

Tesla Stock

Tesla’s stock rose on Tuesday, closing at its 200-day line.

Rumors suggest that CEO Elon Musk is planning to build a low-cost electric vehicle priced at 25,000 euros ($26,838) in Germany. This news is significant, given the potential impact on the competitive landscape for EV startups. Although no official comments have been made by Tesla, this development will be closely monitored by the industry.

While Tesla has plans for a cheaper, as-yet undisclosed next-generation EV at a future Mexico plant, CEO Elon Musk has hinted at a cautious approach for the site, given that construction has not yet commenced. A Mexico plant could take advantage of low wages and U.S. IRA tax credits, whereas a Berlin factory would not have those advantages.

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