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Democratic strategists are at odds over Joe Biden’s declining poll numbers and his chances of winning re-election in a potential rematch against Donald Trump next year amidst the growing legal troubles faced by the former president.
The worries about Biden come as voters head to the polls on Tuesday for a series of local and statewide elections in Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These elections are crucial indicators for 2024 and may reflect the popularity of the president.
Should Republicans win key races, concerns about Biden’s chances in 2024 will likely be amplified. Conversely, strong performances by Democrats could alleviate these concerns.
During the weekend, David Axelrod, former political strategist for Barack Obama, expressed concerns about Biden’s electability and suggested he should consider dropping out of the race for a second term.
“The consequences of a miscalculation are too significant to ignore. Only Joe Biden can make this decision,” Axelrod posted on X. His comments were prompted by a New York Times/Siena poll of critical battleground states, which indicated that Trump would defeat Biden in five of the six states in a hypothetical matchup.
However, many Democrats are pushing back against pessimism about Biden’s chances. “Polls are notoriously inaccurate this early,” said Jim Messina, a senior campaign strategist for Obama, in an interview with the Financial Times.
“The choice between two candidates will be made a year from now, with voters turning out in November 2024, not people who respond to polls in November 2023,” Messina added.
Several Democrats argued that Axelrod’s suggestion of Biden dropping out was unrealistic and pointed out that he had been wrong before about Biden’s chances four years ago.
“The man who called Biden ‘Mr. Magoo’ in Aug 2019 is still at it,” Ron Klain, Biden’s former White House chief of staff, replied to Axelrod on X, alluding to an elderly, stubborn cartoon character with vision problems.
Nevertheless, recent polls have revealed worrisome weaknesses for Biden. Voters remain highly concerned about his age – he will turn 81 on November 20 – and perceive him as less capable than Trump in various areas, including economic management.
Furthermore, there are indications that Biden is losing support among key demographics within the Democratic party, particularly black and Hispanic voters.
“Yellow lights are flashing. The most troubling thing is that it’s not an isolated incident; it’s part of a trend,” warned Anthony Coley, a former senior justice department official under Biden, in a post on X, urging the party to take the poll and its consequences seriously.
Biden’s declining poll numbers have coincided with a division within the Democratic party over his handling of the Middle East crisis. Progressives accuse him of excessively supporting Israel in its war against Hamas and not doing enough to prevent civilian casualties.
In a podcast with former staffers, Obama offered a more neutral perspective on the conflict, stating, “If you want to solve the problem, you have to acknowledge the whole truth and admit that nobody’s hands are clean.”
Mary Anne Marsh, a Democratic strategist based in Massachusetts, noted that Biden still leads on the issue of abortion, which could motivate voters to go to the polls.
“For women, especially those who are aware that their abortion rights are under threat, other issues are of secondary importance. What good is a strong economy if you don’t have access to the healthcare you need?” Marsh said.
The Kentucky governor’s race, the Virginia legislature elections, and an abortion ballot measure in Ohio are among the state and local races being closely watched for political insights.
Democrats hope that Biden’s contrast with Trump, which worked in his favor in 2020, will become even more pronounced next year.
“President Biden’s campaign is actively engaging and mobilizing our diverse winning coalition of voters one year out from the election, highlighting the choice between our popular, successful agenda and the unpopular extremism of MAGA Republicans,” said Kevin Munoz, a spokesperson for Biden’s campaign, referring to the latest polls.
Matt Bennett, a former adviser to Bill Clinton now at Third Way, a think-tank, commented, “Joe Biden has been present in people’s lives for the past three years, while Trump has not. By the time they vote, Trump will have a significant presence in their lives once again.”
