Glaciers in East Antarctica could face accelerated ice loss in the future, according to scientists who reported their findings on Friday. This alarming feedback loop occurs when glacier meltwater leads to increased ice loss and sea level rise as global warming escalates.
Notably, this discovery comes shortly after scientists reported rapid melting of West Antarctica’s ice shelves, which may now be unavoidable due to human-caused global warming. These recent studies, along with others, paint a dire picture of the melting southern continent and the severe threat of global sea level rise.
“This paper demonstrates that the situation is not just bad, but even worse than our previous expectations,” said Jamin Greenbaum, co-author of the study and assistant research geophysicist at the University of California San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
The study, published in the journal Science Advances, focuses on the Denman and Scott glaciers in East Antarctica. Combined, these glaciers hold enough ice to cause approximately five feet of sea level rise.
Previous research indicates that as glaciers melt, the meltwater flows beneath them and into the sea, which accelerates melting and ice loss. The new study incorporated this feedback into simulations to assess the potential acceleration of Antarctic melting and sea level rise.
Scientists discovered that the glaciers could surpass a critical threshold approximately 25 years earlier if accelerated burning of fossil fuels continues. By factoring in the meltwater feedback, the sea level rise from the Denman and Scott glaciers would increase by nearly 16% by the end of 2300 under high levels of planet-heating pollution.
Importantly, Greenbaum emphasized that current climate models exclude the additional ice loss from meltwater discharge, despite its potential to drive significant ice loss across the entire continent. To accurately predict global sea level rise, it is essential to measure this phenomenon and incorporate it into climate models.
Tyler Pelle, the lead author of the study and postdoctoral researcher at Scripps, highlighted the increasing instability of East Antarctica and its elevated risk of sea level rise to coastal communities and low-lying island nations. Pelle urged people to pay attention to this fragile region.
“These massive ice masses, which were once considered stable, exhibit clear patterns of retreat based on coastal observations,” Pelle told CNN. “Hence, this region deserves significant attention.”
Researchers stress that lives are at stake. While current generations may not directly experience the devastating impacts of melting ice, the choices made today will seal the fate of future generations.
“The emissions we release now will inevitably impact the climate for generations to come,” Pelle said. “Our actions today shape the Earth’s state in the years 2100 and 2300, even if we are no longer here.”
Jan De Rydt, an associate professor of polar glaciology and oceanography at Northumbria University not involved in the study, supports the researchers’ strong argument for including subglacial discharge in simulations of Antarctic ice loss.
“Given this evidence, subglacial melt and discharge are processes that cannot be ignored when projecting Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise,” De Rydt told CNN.
Although the study only employed present-day simulations, leading to conservative results, Greenbaum stated that the team plans to conduct fieldwork to analyze the depths of the ice sheet and the ocean to gain a comprehensive understanding of the future.
“The least-explored part of Antarctica is the most critical for observation and monitoring,” he emphasized. “It’s a significant issue that needs urgent attention our group is dedicated to addressing.”
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