Biden’s Ability to Pass Ambitious Legislation and Define His Legacy Through Israel and Ukraine
Despite the current state of Congress and the upcoming tough election, President Joe Biden’s chances of passing ambitious legislation seem dim. However, his decades-long experience in Washington, especially his time on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has set the stage for Israel and Ukraine to define his legacy.
The most recent legislation, intended to provide funding for these two allies, may very well be the last major accomplishment of Biden’s administration. In a rare Oval Office address on Thursday night, Biden highlighted the importance of intervening in conflicts in Eastern Europe (between Ukraine and Russia) and the Mediterranean (between Israel and Hamas), stressing that American aid, armaments, and intelligence are not only worthy but also necessary.
This bill holds particular significance for Biden. If he secures the necessary funding from Congress to support Israel and Ukraine as planned, it is increasingly likely that this will be the last major legislation passed during his first term as president. And with the uncertainty of political life, there is a good chance it could be his final major action in Washington altogether.
Biden’s legacy has always been closely tied to foreign policy. He referenced the beliefs of the late former US Secretary of State Madeline Albright, who described the US as the “indispensable nation” and emphasized that peace is achievable but requires investment. Biden’s appointment as ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee coincided with Albright’s confirmation as Secretary of State, allowing him to become familiar with her work.
These perspectives are not new for Biden, whose record speaks for itself. After five decades in Washington, much of which was spent in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s leadership, it’s no surprise that he empathizes with and seeks to support allies. His reputation in the liberal internationalist wing of the Democratic Party remains untarnished.
Apart from countering Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical maneuvers, Biden also made an economic case for providing aid. He mentioned that the armaments sent to Israel and Ukraine would be drawn from existing stockpiles, which would be replenished with the help of workers in factories in places like Arizona.
Nevertheless, this bill won’t be a walk in the park. Some Republicans oppose funding Ukraine, while some Democrats hesitate to give Israel a blank check. Moreover, Congress is currently in disarray. The Senate presents its own challenges, with one member holding up promotions and the slim majority sometimes proving difficult to manage. In addition, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Policy Committee Bob Menendez is facing indictment in a bribery scandal, temporarily relinquishing his position.
The House is equally chaotic, having ousted the Speaker of the House and struggling to find a viable replacement. The current interim leader’s legal status is unclear, further exacerbating the chamber’s instability.
Despite these obstacles, it is likely that most members of Congress will support an aid package for Israel and Ukraine. However, as we all know, Congress is far from easy to navigate.
Facing increasing partisanship in the United States, Biden’s chances of securing another major legislative achievement are slim. The country is divided, with even a hypothetical Republican ham sandwich and Democratic turkey sandwich likely resulting in a 51-49 or 49-51 split. While Biden has several arguments to make regarding the state of the economy, the end of the pandemic, impressive job numbers, and a potentially polarizing opponent, there is a real possibility of him losing the election.
Various factors come into play, such as the potential for a third-party bid from a well-known candidate, uncertain economic conditions, or future gas prices. This makes it entirely possible that Biden’s first term in office could also be his last, even without considering unexpected health issues or primary challenges.
Biden’s first term has already seen several notable accomplishments, including the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, and previous rounds of funding for Ukraine. However, it is unlikely that this Congress will provide him with any further domestic victories. If there is any bipartisan coalition in Congress, it most likely exists in relation to Israel and Ukraine. Therefore, it appears highly probable that this might be Biden’s final opportunity to pass significant legislation before the upcoming election.
If he loses, it is difficult to envision him making another attempt in 2028. This legislation could be his last stand, and while he might be elected, the challenging Senate map this year raises doubts about whether he will have a compliant legislature in 2025. During the Obama administration, the president faced significant hurdles in achieving ambitious legislative goals in his second term due to GOP resistance. If anything, the GOP’s willingness to cooperate has only decreased.
In conclusion, this may well be the last major legislative effort of the Biden-Harris administration. Only time will tell if Biden can make it count.
Originally published on Business Insider.
