With six teams on bye and a number of injuries, the Week 7 fantasy football rankings are set to look unusual. It will be a challenging task to find sleeper picks and Hail Mary plays this week, with the rankings taking on a Halloween-themed twist. Is it worth starting Zach Evans, Craig Reynolds, and Diontae Johnson? Read on to find out.
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WEEK 7 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS
** BYES: CAR, CIN, DAL, HOU, NYJ, TEN **
Jaguars at Saints, TNF
In the absence of Zay Jones, Calvin Ridley’s fantasy points per game (FPPG) drop to 5.6 with a team target percentage (TmTGT%) of 18.8. However, Christian Kirk sees an increase in FPPG to 8.3 with a TmTGT% of 25.6. When Jones is on the field, Ridley’s FPPG is 9.6 with a TmTGT% of 25.3, Jones’ FPPG is 7.9 with a TmTGT% of 24.0, and Kirk’s FPPG is 6.0 with a TmTGT% of 20.0. The Saints are the only team whose game is not meeting the Vegas over, with the lowest combined points per game (PPG) at 34.2 (CLE has 34.4 and TB has 35.6 in the next two games). Travis Etienne has been performing well, ranking as RB1 in FPPG (28.1), third in rush yards (191), first in rush touchdowns (4), sixth in receptions (7), and fifth in receiving yards (76) over the past two weeks. Alvin Kamara ranks seventh in FPPG (15.6), seventh in rush yards (148), second in receptions (10), and 13th in receiving yards (53).
Raiders at Bears, 1 p.m.
If Aidan O’Connell starts, he is a boom/bust option for streaming (see below). If it’s Brian Hoyer, he has low upside and is not a favorable choice. The Bears have been involved in the highest number of games hitting the Vegas over (83.3% of their games), with DEN, IND, and MIA following closely (four games at 66.7%). In Week 4, with Aidan O’Connell, the Raiders had a third-down conversion rate of just 9.1% (MIN had 12.5% and CIN had 22.2%, ranking second and third lowest, respectively).
Browns at Colts, 1 p.m.
Despite losing some touches in Week 6, Jerome Ford has maintained a solid performance with 11.7 FPPG (16th) and a 54.2% RB touch percentage (24th) since taking over in Week 3. Jonathan Taylor saw a significant increase in snap percentage (from 16.4% to 42.7%) and RB touch percentage (from 21.9% to 50.0%) in Week 6. Expect Taylor to lead in Week 7. The Colts run man coverage the least (10.3%) and primarily use zone coverage (82.3%). Amari Cooper’s performance dips when facing zone coverage, going from 2.71 yards per route run (YPRR) against man coverage to 2.00 YPRR against zone. The Browns have the highest rate of forcing 3-and-outs (59.4%) with the Saints ranking second at 47.2%. The Colts had the 11th-highest rate of 3-and-outs in the previous week with Gardner Minshew (38.5%).
Bills at Patriots, 1 p.m.
James Cook’s rushing performance (14 carries for 71 yards) was lower than expected, resulting in a season-low RB touch percentage of 51.9% with zero targets. Rhamondre Stevenson took the lead over Ezekiel Elliott, while Latavius Murray has had the fifth-most goal-line rushing attempts (seven) but only two rushing touchdowns. The Patriots and the Browns both lead the league with a 55.6% stuff rate on runs.
Commanders at Giants, 1 p.m.
Jalin Hyatt is a worthy Hail Mary play with an 83.3% route percentage and a 16.5 average air yards per target (AirYD/TGT) in Week 6. The Commanders allow the most receiving yards per game (159.8) to wide receivers lined up wide, while the Browns allow the fewest (63.0). The Giants, along with ATL, CAR, DEN, and NE, have failed to cover the spread in five out of six games this season. The Giants run man coverage the second-most (33.9%, CLE ranks first at 42.0%), and Curtis Samuel improves from 1.37 YPRR against man coverage to 1.92 when facing man.
Falcons at Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Among running backs with a touch percentage of 67.0% or higher since Week 3, only two have fewer than 10.0 FPPG – Dameon Pierce (9.2) and Rachaad White (6.8). The Falcons have the lowest percentage of 11-set formation (three-wide) per dropback at 15.3%, with the Bills having the next lowest at 47.9%. Consequently, the Falcons have the highest percentage of 12-set formation (two tight ends) at 41.1%. Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith have been performing well as tight ends over the past two weeks, ranking fifth and eighth, respectively, in total points and FPPG.
Lions at Ravens, 1 p.m.
If Jahmyr Gibbs plays, he is a strong RB2 option, having had a 69.2% RB touch percentage in Week 3. Craig Reynolds, on the other hand, had a touch percentage of 15.4% in the same week. If Gibbs is out, Reynolds is a mediocre RB2 option, similar to D’Onta Foreman’s performance last week. The Lions, along with MIA and SF, have covered the spread in all but one game this season. The Ravens have the lowest rate of opponent drives resulting in a touchdown, at 7.1%, with the Browns ranking second-lowest at 10.9%.
Steelers at Rams, 4 p.m.
If Kyren Williams plays, he is an RB1 option with some injury risk, while Zach Evans becomes an RB3. If Williams is out, Evans could have a similar performance to Reynolds (if Gibbs is also out), but with more potential for upside. Royce Freeman could be a challenge for Evans, just as Damien Williams was for the Cardinals. Kenny Pickett has a lower Comp% Over Expectation mark than PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Pickett ranks fourth-worst in OffTGT% (24.5%). The Rams have allowed the fourth-lowest CPOE% (-5.1%).
Cardinals at Seahawks, 4 p.m.
Williams had a strong performance with the second-most fantasy points and touches, while Emari Demercado had the most snaps but the fewest points and touches. Keaontay Ingram had the most points and touches and ranked second in snaps. It’s advisable to avoid this situation if possible. Geno Smith ranks 28th in TD/INT ratio (2.1) and 27th in FPPG (11.7) since Week 3, while the Cardinals have the most favorable PassEPA for defenses. It’s a make-or-break week for Smith. Michael Wilson has struggled against man coverage, with just one target and zero receptions, while performing well against zone coverage. The Seahawks primarily run zone coverage (83.7%). The Cardinals have allowed the second-most targets in the end zone (17), with Tyler Lockett leading the league in end zone targets (seven), tied with Courtland Sutton and Jordan Addison.
Packers at Broncos, 4 p.m.
The matchup may not be as enticing as before, with the Broncos falling to 19th best in PassEPA allowed in the past two weeks (they were the best through Week 4). However, given the injuries and bye weeks, Jordan Love is still a worthy choice, and don’t underestimate Romeo Doubs just yet. Love has the highest first-read percentage among qualified quarterbacks (75.8%), while Christian Watson had a 28.6% first
