By Jack Jeffrey and Samy Magdy | Associated Press
CAIRO — Amidst the relentless bombardment from Israel in retaliation for the brutal Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, desperate Palestinians in sealed-off Gaza wonder why neighboring Egypt and Jordan refuse to offer refuge.
The two countries, which share borders with Gaza and the occupied West Bank respectively, have firmly rejected the idea. Jordan, in particular, is already home to a significant Palestinian population.
On Wednesday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi made his strongest statement yet, stating that the ongoing war is not just about fighting Hamas, but also an attempt to force the civilian population to migrate to Egypt. He warned that this could destabilize the region and endanger peace.
Jordan’s King Abdullah II sent a similar message a day earlier, stating, “No refugees in Jordan, no refugees in Egypt.”
Their refusal is rooted in the fear that Israel wants to permanently expel Palestinians from their homeland and nullify their demands for statehood. El-Sissi also expressed concerns that a mass exodus could bring militants into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, potentially leading to attacks on Israel, thus threatening the 40-year-old peace treaty between the two countries.
Here, we examine the motivations behind Egypt’s and Jordan’s positions.
A HISTORY OF DISPLACEMENT
Throughout Palestinian history, displacement has been a recurring theme. In the 1948 war that marked the creation of Israel, an estimated 700,000 Palestinians were expelled or fled from their homes. This event is known as the Nakba, which means “catastrophe” in Arabic.
In the 1967 Middle East war, when Israel seized the West Bank and Gaza Strip, an additional 300,000 Palestinians fled, mostly to Jordan.
Currently, there are nearly 6 million Palestinian refugees and their descendants, residing in camps and communities in the West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. Many Palestinians have also built new lives in Gulf Arab countries and the Western world.
Since the 1948 war, Israel has refused to allow refugees to return to their homes. It has consistently rejected Palestinian demands for their return as part of a peace agreement, arguing that it would endanger the Jewish majority in the country.
Egypt fears that history might repeat itself, and a large population of Palestinian refugees from Gaza might end up staying permanently.
NO GUARANTEE OF RETURN
One of the reasons behind Egypt’s concerns is the lack of a clear endgame for this war.
Israel has stated its intention to destroy Hamas in response to their violent attack on southern towns. However, Israel has not provided any indication of what would happen after the destruction of Hamas and who would govern Gaza. This ambiguity raises concerns that Israel might reoccupy the territory, leading to further conflicts.
The Israeli military has promised that Palestinians who followed their order to flee northern Gaza and take refuge in the southern half of the strip would be allowed to return home after the war ends.
However, Egypt remains unconvinced.
El-Sissi stated that the fighting could continue for years if Israel argues that it hasn’t adequately crushed the militants. He proposed that Israel temporarily house Palestinians in its Negev Desert, which borders the Gaza Strip, until the military operation concludes.
“Israel’s lack of clarity regarding its intentions in Gaza and the evacuation of the population is problematic in itself,” said Riccardo Fabiani, Crisis Group International’s North Africa Project Director. “This confusion heightens fears in the region.”
Egypt has been urging Israel to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, and on Wednesday, Israel announced its agreement to do so, without specifying a timeline. According to the United Nations, Egypt already hosts approximately 9 million refugees and migrants, including around 300,000 Sudanese who fled their country’s war and arrived this year.
However, Arab countries and many Palestinians suspect that Israel might exploit this opportunity to engineer permanent demographic changes, thereby thwarting Palestinian aspirations for statehood in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, which was also captured by Israel in 1967.
El-Sissi reiterated on Wednesday that a mass exodus from Gaza was intended to “eliminate the Palestinian cause, the most important cause in our region.” He argued that if a demilitarized Palestinian state had been established through negotiations long ago, the current war would not have occurred.
“All historical precedents indicate that when Palestinians are forced to leave Palestinian territory, they are not allowed to return,” said H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Egypt does not want to be complicit in the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.”
Arab countries’ fears have intensified due to the rise of hard-right parties under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which openly discuss the removal of Palestinians. Since the Hamas attack, the rhetoric has become more unrestrained, with right-wing politicians and media commentators advocating for the military to destroy Gaza and expel its residents. One lawmaker even suggested a “new Nakba” for Gaza.
WORRIES OVER HAMAS
Additionally, Egypt is concerned that a mass exodus from Gaza would bring Hamas or other Palestinian militants into its territory. This could destabilize the Sinai Peninsula, where Egypt’s military has been engaged in a years-long battle against Islamic militants, at one point accusing Hamas of supporting them.
Ever since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, Egypt has supported Israel’s blockade, strictly regulating the entry of materials and the movement of civilians. Egypt has also destroyed the network of tunnels used by Hamas and other Palestinians to smuggle goods into Gaza.
With the insurgency in Sinai largely contained, “Cairo does not want to face new security problems in this troubled region,” according to Fabiani.
El-Sissi warned of an even more dangerous scenario: the breakdown of Egypt and Israel’s 1979 peace agreement. He argued that with the presence of Palestinian militants, Sinai “would become a base for attacks on Israel. Israel would have the right to defend itself… and would strike Egyptian territory.”
“The peace we have achieved would be lost,” he said, “all for the sake of eliminating the Palestinian cause.”
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