This could be Nikki Haley’s moment. Not for her to become the leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, but rather, her opportunity to consolidate anti-Trump support within the GOP. Haley could position herself as a strong contender for the silver medal and potentially secure a prominent speaking slot at the RNC in Milwaukee next summer.
Recent polls show Haley’s modest rise in popularity, placing her third in RealClearPolitics’ average of national polls, trailing only Trump and Ron DeSantis. She consistently outperforms DeSantis in polling for the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire. Additionally, she secured the endorsement of former Representative Will Hurd, further boosting her credibility. Haley’s presence at two major donor conferences this month further solidifies her position. While her surge may pale in comparison to the candidate bubbles of past GOP primaries, it remains the most noteworthy development in the race at present.
Haley’s success can be attributed, in part, to her standout performances at debates. She manages to come across as mature, vibrant, and a genuine alternative to Trump without solely defining herself in contrast to him. However, her momentum is largely fueled by DeSantis’s dramatic decline.
Over the course of nearly a year of campaigning, a stark contrast has emerged between the idealized image of “Ron DeSantis” that conservative elites envisioned and the reality of the man seen on the campaign trail. Prominent conservatives had imagined him as a charismatic and principled figure who could skillfully merge Trump’s confrontational rhetoric with a traditional conservative platform and effective governance. DeSantis’ resounding victory in Florida during the 2022 midterms further fueled this perception. However, as individuals have become more acquainted with DeSantis, their initial enthusiasm has waned. He seems mechanical in his delivery, lacking the ability to connect with people authentically. Moreover, his attempts to highlight election fraud and launch anti-Disney campaigns fell flat. Revelations regarding his campaign’s use of Nazi imagery proved damaging, and his failed reboot demonstrated his reliance on gimmicks. Most importantly, DeSantis has failed to pose a serious challenge to Trump’s dominance in the race, thereby undermining his primary appeal. Donors have withdrawn their support, and Murdoch, who initially championed DeSantis, has quickly moved on.
Hence, the current buzz surrounding Haley. While Hurd’s endorsement may not singlehandedly propel her to success, it reflects the concerns of anti-Trump Republicans who recognize the need for consolidation in order to defeat Trump, a feat DeSantis seems incapable of accomplishing.
However, it’s worth noting that DeSantis’ failure is not solely due to his shortcomings as a candidate; rather, it stems from the reluctance of GOP primary voters to consider an alternative to Trump. The premise underlying Haley’s rise is the belief that Republicans would select a different candidate if the right one emerged. Nevertheless, Trump consistently polls above 50 percent among GOP voters nationwide. Unlike 2016, where he only secured a plurality until the nomination, Trump’s support remains formidable.
Republican elites, still resistant to the reality that the ideology of rank-and-file Republican voters differs from their own, continue to underestimate this divide. Even after their failed attempts to stop Trump in 2016 and years of eulogizing the demise of the Republican establishment, they persist in their misjudgment. Mitt Romney, addressing a conference of his former donors, recently called upon them to encourage their supported candidates to step aside and endorse another contender. However, donors, who are surely adept at analyzing numbers, recognize that even if all candidates except Haley withdrew and endorsed her, she would still trail behind Trump. Haley’s rise is intellectually intriguing, but it likely won’t overshadow Trump’s re-nomination.
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