Surprise Hamas Attack Shakes Israel, Threatens Peace Talks
Last week, negotiations between President Biden, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia were poised to normalize Israel-Saudi ties and establish a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty. Analysts were cautiously optimistic that a megadeal might be achieved by early next year. However, Saturday’s sudden attack by Hamas fighters into Israel has shattered this hope. In the volatile Middle East, war-fighting often takes precedence over peacemaking. As Israel grapples with its worst surprise attack since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, it is uncertain whether the Saudi-Israeli peace talks can make significant progress. This attack could be an attempt by Iran and its proxies, including Hamas, to thwart the historic reconciliation between Jerusalem and Riyadh.
The attack footage circulating online is shocking for many, including Americans observing events from afar. However, the impact on Israelis is unimaginable as they face the calamity that has befallen their country. This incident has been labeled as Israel’s equivalent of 9/11, which will have dangerous and unpredictable implications similar to the ripple effects of the 2001 attacks. While Israel has become accustomed to the threat of Hamas rockets, the massive ground assault launched by Hamas is unprecedented. The fighters managed to infiltrate Israeli border posts, rampage through neighboring Israeli communities, inflict civilian casualties, and even seize Israeli military bases and vehicles. Israel will undoubtedly respond with a forceful military retaliation.
Israel has learned to coexist with Hamas in control of the Gaza Strip, considering it a lesser evil compared to other potential scenarios. However, this attack could push Netanyahu to order the complete destruction of Hamas, leading Israeli troops into challenging urban warfare in Gaza City. Hamas may be attempting to draw Israel into a quagmire, similar to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. Israelis face the question of what comes next, as a prolonged occupation of Gaza will result in more casualties and allegations of war crimes. Ultimately, the Israeli Defense Forces will prevail, but the aftereffects remain uncertain.
Palestinians will bear the brunt of the Hamas attack, worsening their already dire conditions in Gaza. The poverty and misery in Gaza, exacerbated by the Israeli-Egyptian blockade, make it easier for Hamas to recruit desperate young men as fighters. Both Israelis and Palestinians must recognize that coexistence is the only viable option for lasting peace. If an Israeli-Saudi normalization deal can preserve the possibility of a two-state solution, it could enhance Israel’s long-term security. However, the likelihood of peace talks progressing seems remote in the wake of this attack. Currently, war and suffering dominate, with no clear end in sight.
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