A Pacific Punch in Climate’s Gut
There’s an exceptionally powerful force in nature that has been attributed to the downfall of ancient Peruvian civilizations, the French Revolution, and one of the deadliest famines in the 19th century. This force is known as El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warm surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When El Niño strikes, it weakens trade winds and pushes warm water eastward towards the coast of the Americas, resulting in chaotic weather patterns. Strong El Niños can lead to extreme winter storms in the US, heavy rainfall and flooding in South America, and severe droughts in Indonesia and Australia. The effects of El Niño are amplified by climate change, making it even more of a threat. In fact, some predict that humanity will cross the threshold of a 1.5°C temperature rise next year, largely due to El Niño.
Are you ready to delve deeper into the world of El Niño? Come on in, the water’s– uh, barely scalding.
By the Numbers:
– El Niños typically last 9-12 months
– The average time span between each El Niño is 2-7 years, but climate change is shortening this gap
– There have been 26 El Niño events since 1900
– 7 of those events have occurred since 2000
– During the 2014-2016 El Niño season, the last and most powerful since 2000, 34 provinces in Indonesia experienced severe drought
– Famine caused by the 2014-2016 El Niño season left 60 million people in Southern Africa dependent on food aid
Origin Story:
Back in the 1600s, South American fishing crews noticed something peculiar about the ocean. Every few years around Christmas, the water felt unusually warm. They named this phenomenon El Niño de Navidad, which translates to “the Christmas child,” in reference to the newborn Christ. This warming phenomenon is not new. Evidence suggests that strong El Niño events occurred as far back as 10,000 years ago and likely played a role in the collapse of ancient civilizations in Peru. El Niño has always been, and should always be, taken seriously.
Severe weather associated with El Niño can have devastating effects on supply chains. The 1877-1878 El Niño, for example, caused a collapse in the guano industry. Seabird droppings from Peru were used as fertilizer worldwide, but when the weather pattern killed off a large number of birds and washed away their guano, the industry suffered.
Mark Twain once famously said, “We all grumble about the weather, but–but… nothing is done about it.”
Pop Quiz:
There is a climate pattern that is essentially the opposite of El Niño. What is it called?
A. El Hombre
B. La Niña
C. La Mujer
D. El Grito
Answer: B. La Niña
Charted:
Graphic: Clarisa Diaz
The North Atlantic Ocean experienced its warmest year on record in 2023, with some areas feeling like hot tubs. El Niño played a significant role in this temperature increase.
A Meteorology Lesson:
Warm conditions in the Pacific Ocean influence weather patterns in North America. This, in turn, affects atmospheric pressure, rainfall, and storms that pass over the Pacific Northwest, Canada, the northeast US, and eventually reach the North Atlantic. A band of warm air creates conditions for higher temperatures and cloud cover, leading to heat domes, heat waves, and lightning storms that heat up the Atlantic waters.
Brief History:
– In the 1600s, South American fishing crews first noticed abnormally warm waters in the Pacific Ocean.
– The 1997-1998 El Niño bleached 16% of the world’s coral.
– In 2002, villagers in Peru tried to slow down an El Niño-induced mudslide.
– Indonesia experienced a severe drought in 2009 as El Niño delayed the annual rains.
– In 2018, El Niño caused the worst drought in Australia since 1902.
– In 2023, humans recorded the hottest day on Earth as climate change and the current El Niño effect converged.
Take Me Down This Rabbit Hole!
Canada experienced record-breaking wildfires in 2023, thanks in part to the current El Niño. As of September, 16.5 million hectares of land were engulfed, more than double the previous record set in 1995.
Graphic: Clarisa Diaz
While the area burned this year is astounding, the number of fires isn’t. Most wildfire seasons in Canada see around 6,100 fires, and this year is no different. However, the intensity of the fires has changed. Drier and hotter temperatures, amplified by El Niño, made the fires nearly uncontrollable.
Fun Fact:
El Niño isn’t just about record high temperatures. This year, the western region of the US can expect warmer and wetter winter conditions due to El Niño. However, the mid-Atlantic and northeast may experience an earlier chill, potentially leading to a booming business for snow plowers.
Poll:
Which weather event would you blame on El Niño?
A. Rain on your wedding day
B. A summery Halloween
C. Too much snow to go home for the holidays
D. The outrageous amount of pollen outside my window
Pretend you’re a meteorologist for a day and give us your forecast.
Let’s Talk!
In last week’s poll about The Great British Bake Off, Mel and Sue emerged as the clear favorites among GBBO presenters. However, a quarter of respondents would choose Mary Berry over any presenter.
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Today’s email was written by Morgan Haefner and Clarisa Diaz, and edited by Susan Howson.
The correct answer to the pop quiz is B, La Niña.
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