By Josh Boak, Stephen Groves, and Lisa Mascaro | Associated Press
WASHINGTON — The White House is preparing for a potential federal shutdown after House Republicans departed for the weekend without a viable plan to fund the government, risking political and economic disruptions. Speaker Kevin McCarthy must convince his hard-right Republican colleagues to support a temporary funding measure until they can finalize the federal spending plan. However, the House is not scheduled to reconvene until Tuesday, leaving only five days to resolve the impasse.
“We have members working, and hopefully we’ll be able to move forward on Tuesday to pass these bills,” said McCarthy, R-Calif.
McCarthy expressed his preference for avoiding a shutdown, but a hard-right faction of his House majority has taken control of the situation. “I still believe if you shut down, you’re in a weaker position,” McCarthy said.
The standoff with House Republicans over government funding puts various activities at risk, including military and law enforcement pay, food safety programs, air travel, and passport processing. The potential shutdown could have devastating effects on the U.S. economy.
The Office of Management and Budget, under the Biden administration, is advising federal agencies to review and update their shutdown plans in preparation for the new fiscal year starting on Oct. 1. This suggests that federal employees may be notified next week if they will be furloughed.
President Joe Biden has placed blame on House Republicans for the likely shutdown, accusing them of reneging on their commitments and threatening government cuts. “They’re back at it again, breaking their commitment, threatening more cuts and threatening to shut down the government again,” Biden said in a recent speech.
McCarthy is under immense pressure from a group of hard-right conservatives in his caucus who demand significant spending cuts. Many align with former President Donald Trump, who opposed the budget deal McCarthy agreed to with Biden earlier this year and are working to dismantle it.
Trump has been urging House Republicans to hold the line against federal spending.
Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., an ally of Trump, has led the hard-right faction in their public rebuke of the speaker, effectively seizing control of the House debate.
Late Thursday, the hard-right faction urged McCarthy to shelve plans for a stopgap funding measure and instead start bringing up the 12 individual bills needed to fund the government. The House GOP leadership has announced its intention to process a package of four bills to fund the Defense, Homeland Security, State and Foreign Operations, and Agricultural departments. Voting on these bills is scheduled for Tuesday when lawmakers return.
“Any progress we are making is in spite of, not due to McCarthy,” Gaetz posted on social media, criticizing the speaker for sending lawmakers home for the weekend. “Pathetic.”
Gaetz and his allies argue that the House should engage in the difficult work of legislating, even if it leads to a government shutdown, as they seek substantial reductions and cuts.
The House Rules Committee has announced that it will meet Friday afternoon to begin preparing the bills for floor votes next week. Historically, these bills require weeks of debate and hundreds of amendments, but they will now be expedited.
This caps off a challenging week for McCarthy, who failed to advance a popular defense spending bill after embarrassing floor defeats. The speaker seemed to blame fellow lawmakers for the bill’s failure, saying, “They just want to burn the whole place down.”
A government shutdown occurs when Congress and the president fail to complete the necessary spending bills or approve a temporary measure. As a result, non-essential federal agencies are required to stop all operations. Since 1976, there have been 22 funding gaps, 10 of which resulted in worker furloughs.
The last and longest shutdown on record was during Trump’s administration, lasting 35 days between 2018 and 2019. It occurred as Trump insisted on funding for a U.S. southern border wall, which Democrats and some Republicans opposed.
Although the 35-day shutdown cost the U.S. economy an estimated $3 billion, it only amounted to 0.02% of economic activity in 2019.
However, there will still be costs and difficulties for individuals affected by a shutdown.
Military and law enforcement officials will go unpaid, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster relief fund could be depleted, impacting victims of natural disasters. Clinical trials on new prescription drugs may be delayed, and thousands of children may lose access to care through Head Start. Additionally, environmental and food safety inspections could be backlogged, and food aid for millions may be cut off through the Women, Infants, and Children program.
During a shutdown, air traffic controllers may go unpaid, and visa and passport applications will not be processed.
The U.S. Travel Industry Association estimates that the travel sector could lose $140 million daily during a shutdown.
However, despite the potential damage, the S&P 500 stock index actually climbed 11.6% during the last government shutdown, indicating minimal impact on the overall economy.
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