A recent poll conducted by the Berkeley Institute of Government Studies suggests that support for former President Donald Trump among California Republicans is on the rise. This is an encouraging sign for Trump’s campaign, especially considering how the state assigns its delegates in the upcoming primary election. According to the survey, 55% of likely Republican voters prefer Trump, which is an 11% increase from a previous poll conducted in May. This increase in support would trigger a new rule by the California Republican Party, allocating all 169 delegates to the candidate who secures a majority (50% plus 1) of the statewide vote in the primary election.
Among likely Republican voters, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the preferred candidate for 16%, followed by former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 7%, and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 4%. However, in a February poll conducted by Berkeley IGS, DeSantis was preferred by 37% of registered Republican voters, while 29% preferred Trump.
Commenting on the poll results, IGS co-director Eric Schickler stated, “Even with all of his legal troubles, former President Donald Trump’s lead in the Republican primary looks more like what one expects to see from an incumbent running for reelection than for a candidate in an open seat.” However, political messaging professor Dan Schnur cautions that Trump must maintain this support in California’s GOP voters during the March 5 primary for it to have a significant impact. Schnur also emphasizes the importance of winning the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as securing California’s delegates, to make Trump “unstoppable” in his quest to return to the White House.
The California Republican Party changed its rules in July, stating that if no candidate can secure a majority, the delegates will be distributed proportionally. This change, according to CAGOP Chair Jessica Millan Patterson, encourages candidates to spend more time campaigning in California and making their case to voters. However, it is widely seen as a favorable development for Trump’s presidential aspirations.
Meanwhile, the Berkeley IGS poll also reveals that President Joe Biden has a substantial lead over challengers Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson among both likely Democratic and no party preference voters. Although Biden holds a 51% to 31% lead over Trump in this survey, it also highlights that 24% of registered voters are “very open” to a potential third-party candidate in a Biden-Trump matchup. Furthermore, 23% indicated they are “somewhat open,” and 17% said their preference would depend on the candidate.
In the coming weeks, Trump and other presidential contenders are scheduled to visit Southern California. The Republican National Committee will hold the second GOP presidential primary debate on September 27 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute in Simi Valley. It remains uncertain whether Trump will participate, as he skipped the first debate and criticized the venue due to the affiliation of the board chair with the Washington Post. On September 29, Trump and other candidates will speak at the CAGOP fall convention in Anaheim, where DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott are also expected to make appearances.
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