Unraveling the Myth of the California Exodus
As a devoted writer, I take pleasure in debunking popular misconceptions. One such myth I have long sought to dispel is the idea of a mass exodus from California. Utilizing my mathematical prowess, I have consistently argued that the number of ex-Californians is relatively small compared to the state’s total population. Although widely accepted statistics suggest otherwise, these figures fail to account for California’s status as the most populous state in the US.
Recently, my position received a boost from a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which ranked states based on the percentage of their native-born residents, a metric known as “stickiness.” Surprisingly, California emerged as the fourth “stickiest” state, with an impressive 73% of its population comprising native-born individuals. Texas claimed the top spot with 82.2%, followed by North Carolina (75.5%) and Georgia (74.2%). Joining California in the “sticky six” were Utah (72.9%) and Florida (72.7%). Notably, the four states with the lowest stickiness were also “red” states: Wyoming (45.3%), North Dakota (48.6%), Alaska (48.7%), and South Dakota (54.2%).
The Dallas Fed further examined migration data to validate the loyalty of each state’s population. Surprisingly, California ranked 11th for the lowest share of residents leaving for other states in 2021, tying with Georgia and Florida at 2.1% of their respective populations. Texas claimed the top spot again, with only 1.5% of its residents fleeing to other states. North Carolina and Utah ranked 18th with an exit share of 2.3%.
Delving into the Numbers
Intrigued by the report’s findings, I reached out to Pia Orrenius, the Dallas Fed’s senior economist, to gain a deeper understanding of California’s remarkable status as a “notable exception.” Orrenius offered various explanations, citing factors such as the state’s size, favorable weather, economic opportunities, and job growth.
According to my analysis, California ranked ninth in pre-pandemic job growth (2010-2019) among all states, boasting an impressive 22%. Other members of the “sticky six” also fared well, with Utah claiming the top spot at 32%, followed by Florida (25%), Texas (23%), Georgia (20%), and North Carolina (18%). Despite facing high housing costs and a relatively high tax burden, California residents remain committed to the state.
Comparing homebuying affordability, California ranked as the least affordable state, with 36% of income dedicated to mortgage payments. Utah and Florida followed closely as the ninth least affordable, with 26% of earnings going toward housing expenses. North Carolina and Georgia claimed the 14th spot at 23%, while Texas offered the most affordability among the “sticky six” at 20%.
While California’s tax burden ranked as the 35th worst in the nation, it is worth noting that other members of the “sticky six” had below-average tax obligations. North Carolina (20), Georgia (16), Texas (15), and Florida (5) all fared better in terms of tax burdens.
Looking Beyond Economics
It is essential to recognize that life choices are not solely dictated by financial considerations. California’s appeal lies in its diverse range of activities and entertainment options. Considering my own ranking system, which assesses states based on their “fun factor,” California emerged as the fourth most entertaining state. Florida topped the list among the “sticky six,” with North Carolina and Utah tying for 15th place. Texas (29) and Georgia (30) fell in the middle of the pack.
California is undoubtedly faced with numerous challenges, and its high costs may dissuade many individuals. However, when compared to other states, a significant portion of the population remains satisfied enough to call California home. The numbers don’t lie, and the Dallas Fed’s “sticky” math supports this observation.
PS: Despite the skepticism surrounding California, the state continues to attract new residents. In fact, my analysis of migration data reveals that California has the highest share of population arrivals from other states.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. Contact him at [email protected]
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