The importance of fertiliser minerals in food production has placed the mining industry at the center of a global debate on supply security. Potash and phosphate rock saw a significant increase in price following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. In response, US lawmakers proposed adding these minerals to the country’s list of critical minerals. Mining companies are expanding into fertiliser production in anticipation of the growing demand driven by a rising global population. Potash and phosphate are essential crop nutrients, with potash providing potassium to increase crop yield and phosphate rock providing phosphorus to plants. BHP, the world’s largest mining company, has started construction on a $5.7bn potash mine in Canada, while Anglo American is building a $6.1bn mine in northern England to produce a new kind of potassium-rich fertiliser. The demand for potash is expected to increase by around 1% each year by the end of the decade. The falling prices of potash have led to a halt in expansion plans by Nutrien, the world’s largest producer, although prices are predicted to slowly increase as the market rebalances. The opening of BHP’s Jansen mine in late 2026 will further boost the availability of Canadian potash. The impact of the war in Ukraine on phosphate rock has been less significant, but the growth of electric vehicle batteries using lithium iron phosphate (LFP) could increase the demand for phosphate rock. Anglo American aims to produce up to 13mn tonnes of polyhalite, a new fertiliser, once its Yorkshire mine is fully developed. The success of this product will depend on creating a global market for it. The prospects of fertiliser miners may also depend on government policies classifying them as critical minerals, opening the door for tax breaks and subsidies to support the industry’s development.
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