Indonesia has taken over as the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) following Cambodia’s successful completion of its chairmanship in 2022. As Indonesia assumes this role, there are several crucial issues and expectations it must address, including the conflict in Myanmar, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and ASEAN’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Each ASEAN chair faces numerous challenges, and opinions on their authority differ. Prior to assuming its chairmanship, Cambodia faced criticism for its handling of the Myanmar crisis, while Malaysia deported Rohingya refugees back to a dangerous environment. However, Cambodia also received praise for making clear decisions on various global issues. Although Indonesia received positive feedback before taking on the ASEAN chairmanship, it is important to wait and see the outcome of its leadership this year. Evaluations should be made at the end of each chairmanship, not at the beginning.
Let’s focus on the Myanmar crisis, which Indonesia will need to address on behalf of ASEAN this year. The crisis began during Brunei’s chairmanship and remained a contentious issue during Cambodia’s leadership. Both countries employed different leadership styles in attempting to resolve the problem. Cambodia engaged in negotiations with the Myanmar regime and various stakeholders. They made an effort to obtain the junta’s approval before meeting with leaders of Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) in exile. Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen faced criticism when he visited Myanmar to meet with the junta’s officials.
As Indonesia assumes leadership, it can learn from the approaches of Brunei and Cambodia. The best method for Indonesia to lead ASEAN in resolving the Myanmar crisis is a crucial question. Foreign embassies have maintained their presence in Myanmar, cooperating discreetly with the military junta. Indonesia also has a permanent embassy in Myanmar. Myanmar’s trade with neighboring countries like Thailand, China, and India has significantly increased. These nations cooperate with Myanmar’s rulers, regardless of how they came to power. If Indonesia formally recognizes the NUG and offers Aung San Suu Kyi’s representative a seat in ASEAN on Myanmar’s behalf, a complex scenario would unfold, as the military junta holds power and has engaged in business with ASEAN members and other major world powers.
The NUG deserves recognition as Myanmar’s legitimate government as it was chosen by the people. However, it does not currently hold power and lacks the resources to challenge the junta, which maintains its hold through collaboration with other nations in trade and military acquisitions. If Indonesia’s president meets with the junta’s leaders, the country will face criticism similar to Cambodia. On the other hand, if Indonesia only hosts meetings with ASEAN members and dialogue partners while excluding the junta, progress in resolving the conflict in Myanmar will be difficult. Should Indonesia recall its ambassador from Myanmar? Should Indonesia declare war as a response to the military regime? Can Indonesia prevent Myanmar’s neighbors from doing business with the junta? If the relevant parties in Myanmar acknowledge that internal agreement is the key to resolving the crisis, a peaceful resolution is possible. However, this can only be achieved if Indonesia engages with all parties in Myanmar and if ASEAN includes other relevant parties in its conversations. We wish Indonesia success in its ASEAN chairmanship.
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