Subscribe to receive free updates on the Conservative Party UK. We will send you a daily email with the latest news regarding the party. The Conservative Party UK has a remarkable track record as one of the most successful political parties in the history of democracy. They have been in power for 64 of the last 100 years, a feat surpassed only by Canada’s Liberals in the developed world. Winning elections is something the Tories are known for, having emerged victorious in 13 elections.
However, the current situation presents an intriguing predicament for the party. While they are confident in their ability to recover from a nearly year-long 20-point deficit in the polls, their approach to closing the gap raises questions. Instead of focusing on delivering solutions to the pressing crises faced by the public, the Conservatives seem more inclined to emphasize divisive issues.
On the surface, their faith in their past strategies may seem reasonable. In the 2015 general election, the Tories secured a majority in the House of Commons despite trailing in the polls for most of the preceding five years. Their disciplined campaigns that united the right led to victories in recent elections, including a significant win in 2019.
However, the political and social landscape of the UK has changed significantly. To effectively use a wedge issue, two conditions must be met. First, the issue must be considered one of the most important for the country. Second, the party using the wedge must be perceived as having the solution to the issue. Are these conditions applicable to the current Tory campaigns?
It is instructive to look at past examples. In Australia in 2001, an incident involving a migrant boat brought the issue of border security to the forefront, making it one of the most important issues facing the country. The governing Liberal party capitalized on this by adopting tough rhetoric, while the opposition faltered in response. The Liberals gained a boost in the polls and ultimately won the election.
The UK’s EU membership referendum in 2016 also revolved around immigration as a wedge issue. As the vote approached, immigration became the top concern according to the pollsters. An intense national debate followed, with 70% of voters believing that leaving the EU would improve the situation. With immigration dominating the discourse and Brexit presented as the solution, 52% of the electorate sided with the wedge, leading to the historic outcome.
In 2019, the Tories secured a significant majority by utilizing Brexit as the ultimate wedge issue. With Brexit dominating conversations, the Conservatives’ simple and repeated promise to “get Brexit done” resonated with voters, leaving the opposition uncertain.
Wedge issues have proven highly effective when deployed skillfully. However, the challenge for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives is that the necessary conditions for success do not currently exist. Recent polls show that immigration ranks low among the most important issues for Britons, with the cost of living crisis, the NHS, and the wider economy taking priority. Moreover, voters perceive Labour as more likely to address immigration challenges than the Tories, diminishing the party’s credibility in this area with each passing month.
Without a sense of urgency, the opposition does not feel compelled to develop a strong stance on immigration, which is advantageous as they would struggle to find a position that satisfies all of their supporters. As the Tories continue to emphasize immigration, it only serves as a reminder of their weaknesses and further distances them from the rest of the electorate, potentially dividing their own base.
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