In 2021, the NFL believed they had figured out how to neutralize Patrick Mahomes, the league’s top quarterback. The strategy involved using two-deep coverage combined with zone-flooding tactics, limiting Mahomes’ impact on the game.
Initially, this approach appeared to work. In the 2021 season, Mahomes faced two-deep coverage (such as Cover-2, 2-Man, Cover-4, Cover-6) and completed 215 of 332 passes for 2,532 yards, 1,401 air yards, nine touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 85.6. Additionally, Mahomes endured the most sacks (20) out of any quarterback on the highest number of dropbacks (389) against two-high coverage.
This trend continued into the start of the 2022 season. Throughout the first nine weeks, Mahomes completed 71 of 106 passes against two-deep strategies, accumulating 906 yards, 523 air yards, three touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 87.2.
However, everything suddenly changed, and the tables turned in Mahomes’ favor.
From Week 10 through the Super Bowl, Mahomes demonstrated remarkable performance, completing 94 of 124 passes against split safeties for 1,249 yards, 752 air yards, six touchdowns, one interception, and an exceptional passer rating of 120.0.
A similar pattern emerged when defenses had three or fewer pass-rushers. In the 2021 season, Mahomes accomplished 49 of 89 passes against this strategy for 526 yards, 293 air yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 69.8. Additionally, Mahomes experienced the highest number of sacks (eight) on a league-high 100 dropbacks against three or fewer rushers.
Once again, the same held true during the first half of the 2022 season. Mahomes completed 21 of 38 passes against three or fewer rushers, resulting in 330 yards, 146 air yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 60.2.
However, Mahomes discovered ways to overcome these challenges.
From Week 10 through the Super Bowl, Mahomes achieved impressive results by completing 21 of 29 passes for 271 yards, 135 air yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and an outstanding passer rating of 135.8.
Andy Reid and his coaching staff employed explosive concepts to crack the code of two-deep coverage. The Chiefs utilized unconventional strategies to target its vulnerabilities.
Last season, Mahomes contributed to 75 explosive plays, with 16 originating from his passing against two-deep coverage. For example, in Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs executed a 22-yard pass to Travis Kelce by countering the Philadelphia Eagles’ Cover 4. They deployed a backside vertical route from receiver Marques Valdes-Scantling, drawing both safeties away, allowing Kelce to navigate through the middle of the defense. Furthermore, receiver Kadarius Toney’s pre-snap motion complicated the Eagles’ linebackers, creating an effective offensive play against any coverage.
An example of Mahomes’ improvement against three or fewer rushers was evident in his utilization of similar concepts. Rather than worrying about zone-flooding, the Chiefs stretched their offensive strategies to the limits, expanding horizontally instead of vertically.
Last season, Mahomes generated eight explosive plays against three or fewer rushers. A notable play occurred during Week 17 against the Denver Broncos’ Cover-3, where Mahomes completed a 28-yard pass to running back Jerick McKinnon. McKinnon aligned to the boundary side, while four receivers bent their routes away from him, creating space for McKinnon. When Mahomes executed one of his infamous scramble-drill, no-look passes, McKinnon found an open area in the eight-man zone coverage.
The NFL will undoubtedly devise new strategies in the 2023 season to limit Patrick Mahomes’ impact. However, history suggests that the NFL must prepare multiple backup plans to counter Mahomes’ abilities.
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