YouGov Survey Indicates Pollster’s Decision to Remain Unchanged

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Free markets, like democratic elections, provide valuable insights into public opinion. YouGov, a leading polling and market research group, excels in both aspects.

An emerging consensus suggests that the London stock market may not be the most favorable listing venue. Supportive of this view, YouGov is contemplating abandoning its AIM listing and making a move to the US. However, the market’s response to this potential change has been minimal.

While YouGov is primarily recognized for its political polls and is co-founded by UK politician Nadhim Zahawi, the majority of the company’s revenue comes from market research. The US represents the largest market for these services, accounting for approximately 50% of YouGov’s sales.

The recent significant decline in YouGov’s share price greatly disappoints co-founder Stephan Shakespeare. The stock has dropped from nearly 60 times forward earnings at the end of 2021 to a mere 22 times today.

Nevertheless, moving to the US may not guarantee greater attention from the larger and more profound capital market, just as the City of London has largely ignored YouGov. The group’s market value is only £1 billion, with sales in the low hundreds of millions last year.

In contrast, US-listed Gartner commands a decent premium. Shares of this technology sector research group trade at over 30 times forward earnings. However, Gartner is a significantly larger business, with a market capitalization of $26 billion and projected sales nearing $6 billion. Its inclusion in the S&P 500 index makes it an essential investment for passive funds.

A smaller local competitor, Forrester Research, indicates a different outcome. Although Forrester’s sales surpassed YouGov’s last year, its growth rate is slower. These factors are reflected in a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times and a substantial discount compared to YouGov.

In July, YouGov raised capital to finance the acquisition of a division of the German peer GfK. This deal marked YouGov’s largest ever. Interestingly, investors showed an appetite for the level of risk offered, demanding only a 3.7% discount for the £51 million placement. The UK market still demonstrates an inclination towards such opportunities, eliminating the need for an opinion poll.

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