In the realm of news surrounding the Middle East, it’s important to approach information with skepticism. The Wall Street Journal recently released a report hinting at a potential deal between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, suggesting that Saudi Arabia would recognize Israel in exchange for concessions to the Palestinians, U.S. security guarantees, and civilian nuclear assistance. However, this report is far from accurate.
Discussions have been ongoing between the United States and both parties involved, exploring the possibility of a deal that would build on the progress made through the Abraham Accords between Israel and other Arab states. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who sees himself as a skilled diplomat, is eager for a deal with the Saudis to leave a lasting legacy. Additionally, he hopes to divert attention from the social, political, and economic turmoil his coalition government has caused in its pursuit of controlling the judiciary.
However, this does not mean that a deal is imminent or even likely. During a recent State Department briefing, spokesperson Matthew Miller dampened expectations created by the Journal’s story. He acknowledged that productive conversations have taken place with both the Israeli and Saudi governments, but stressed that there is still a long way to go and an uncertain future ahead. Similarly, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby emphasized that no agreed-upon negotiations or framework for normalization exist at this time. Kirby even refrained from confirming a date for Netanyahu’s visit to the U.S., further highlighting the lack of imminent agreement.
In Israel, the reaction to the “peace-in-our-time” report was one of amusement. Haaretz pointed out that U.S. and Saudi officials have much work to do, as there are numerous details that must be ironed out. Any of these details could prove fatal and derail the diplomatic efforts.
The fundamental problem with a potential deal lies in the fact that any agreement with the Saudis would likely require significant concessions to the Palestinians. However, the Israeli government’s right-wing coalition, which is focused on annexing the West Bank, includes figures like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir who consistently make radical and offensive remarks and propose policies that do not bode well for the Palestinians. It is difficult to believe that this government would willingly give anything to the Palestinians.
In addition, the Saudis who seek a partnership similar to NATO with the United States, approval for a civilian nuclear program motivated by competition with Iran, and access to advanced U.S. weaponry, may discover that there is little enthusiasm for such agreements in the U.S. Congress. Saudi Arabia has matured into the country that generates the most bipartisan animosity due to its abysmal human rights record and manipulation of oil prices. The process of ratifying a deal that is likely to be seen as too generous for some senators and too stingy for others would make the Iran nuclear agreement fight seem like a walk in the park.
While the U.S. desires to limit Saudi Arabia’s technology and military agreements with China, this alone is unlikely enough to garner support for the agreement sought by the Saudis.
Moreover, there remains the perennial issue of who the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia should negotiate with on the Palestinian side. The corrupt and ineffective Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has seemingly given up on his role in anti-terrorism cooperation, and he certainly does not represent Hamas. Abbas has lived in fear for decades that any move towards reconciliation with Israel would lead to his political downfall and personal demise.
Lastly, the Saudis would be apprehensive about striking a deal with the current Israeli government, which constantly finds itself tangled in one crisis after another, hurtling towards a confrontation with Israel’s Supreme Court. A more centrist Israeli government might be more open to a generous deal, but the current coalition government’s potential collapse following an agreement would lead to its demise.
With a closer look, the possibility of a significant agreement seems more far-fetched. A more modest agreement could be achieved, including aid for the Palestinians conditioned on reforms and anti-corruption measures, limited diplomatic openings, enhanced trade between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and a trilateral regional defense alliance against Iran. However, this may not meet Netanyahu’s lofty expectations.
Perhaps it would be best for all parties involved to wait and see if Netanyahu, his coalition, and Israeli democracy can weather the upcoming clash with the Israeli Supreme Court. If they cannot, a deal with Saudi Arabia would become much less of a priority for everyone.
Denial of responsibility! VigourTimes is an automatic aggregator of Global media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, and all materials to their authors. For any complaint, please reach us at – [email protected]. We will take necessary action within 24 hours.
