Russia’s War in Ukraine: Putin’s Loss and the Emerging Scenarios
The war in Ukraine is not as expensive and unwinnable as Russia wants you to believe. In reality, Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing in Ukraine, and his performance has been poor. The decline of the ruble and raging inflation in Russia are clear signs of the country’s struggles. Additionally, there are more political uprisings on the horizon, leading to Putin losing his international allies.
However, Ukraine and the West are not out of the woods yet. Putin’s goal is to fight a prolonged war in Ukraine and exhaust the West. It is in America’s interest to help Ukraine, but the long war in Ukraine is not beneficial.
This is the perfect time for Washington to exploit Putin’s vulnerabilities and prepare for a post-Putin world. The question is, what scenarios could trigger a chain reaction that would break Putin’s grasp on power?
According to the Institute for the Study of War, there are increasing signs of insubordination within the Russian army. This can be seen as a harbinger of a crisis unfolding within the ranks, similar to what happened in 1916. Another incident like what occurred with Yevgeny Prigozhin could lead to a lack of confidence among Russian soldiers, which would further weaken Putin’s position.
On the economic front, recent Ukrainian drone strikes in Moscow’s upscale areas have contributed to the elite’s fears, while drone strikes on Russian oil shipments have led to increased insurance prices. This directly impacts Russia’s exports, which are already facing a slim profit margin. Moreover, China’s economic woes and signals of fatigue towards Moscow’s war add to Russia’s economic concerns. The country has been burning through foreign-currency reserves to maintain the ruble, which has lost more than 50% of its value this year.
Despite the Central Bank’s strategy to control inflation by increasing interest rates, the Kremlin’s actions of pouring money into the domestic economy undermine these efforts. Economists warn that this artificially created economic bubble is on the verge of bursting, leading Russia towards hyperinflation.
A coup is always a possibility in Russia’s political landscape, as history has shown sudden removals of leaders from power. Recent events, such as Yevgeny Prigozhin’s dash to Rostov, indicate that the Kremlin’s leadership is not fully rallying behind Putin. If there were a serious attempt to overthrow the government, it is likely that the inner circles of Kremlin power would focus on negotiating their own escape rather than protecting Putin’s reign.
Many worry that a new leader replacing Putin could be worse, but it is highly probable that their top priority would be gaining legitimacy and cutting deals with the West. This could include giving up imperial claims on Ukraine in exchange for the West’s support.
Therefore, the United States should collaborate with the Russian democratic opposition, which has been supportive of American interests and Ukraine since the war began in 2014. This collaboration is crucial to plan for a post-Putin world and secure America’s interests. Time is of the essence, as Russia seems to be spiraling towards collapse, and any sudden black-swan event could trigger hyperinflation and further destabilize the country.
By acting now and building strategic allies who denounce a Putin-like government, the collapse of the Putin regime and the triumph of Ukraine will bring long-term benefits to America. We must seize this opportunity to ensure a better future for both Ukraine and the United States. Jason Smart, PhD, a specialist in Russian affairs, serves as a special correspondent for Ukraine’s Kyiv Post.
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