The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has revised its prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season, now stating that there is a 60% chance of an “above-normal level of activity,” with up to 21 named storms. This update comes more than two months after the official start of the season. According to NPR, the main reason for the revised forecast is abnormally warm ocean temperatures. Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, explained that these warm waters fuel hurricanes and are likely to counterbalance the effects of the disruptive El Niño.
NOAA’s new forecast predicts 14-21 named storms, 6-11 of which could become hurricanes, and 2-5 of those could become major hurricanes. This year has already seen five named storms, including Arlene, Bret, Cindy, and Don. A January storm was also declared a named storm after a data review, though its official name is “Unnamed Storm.” The next names on the list are Emily, Franklin, Gert, and Harold, but with the revised forecast, names could be used as far up the list as Vince.
Rosencrans also warned that in a busy Atlantic hurricane season, the chance of a hurricane making landfall on the East Coast of the US doubles. He advises people to worry and prepare for the storms indicated in this forecast. NOAA urges individuals in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels. (Read more hurricane stories.)
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