July 25 (UPI) — A group of scientists have revealed an alarming climate calculation, extrapolating from greenhouse gas emissions, indicating that the Atlantic Ocean’s current will cease to function around 2060 unless significant changes are made prior to that time.
In a report published in the scientific journal Nature Communications, researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute and Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Copenhagen issued the warning about the crucial ocean currents that regulate the distribution of heat, cold, and precipitation between the tropics and the northern Atlantic region.
The scientists utilized data on ocean temperatures from the past 150 years and employed statistical analysis to calculate the Thermohaline Circulation, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
“Using advanced statistical tools, we have performed calculations that provide a more reliable estimate of when the Thermohaline Circulation is most likely to collapse, which was not possible previously,” explained Prof. Susanne Ditlevsen from UCPH’s Department of Mathematical Sciences.
Based on their calculations, researchers determined that the Atlantic Ocean’s current is likely to cease functioning in approximately 34 years, around 2057, if current emission levels persist. The consequences would include increased temperature in the tropics and heightened storm activity in the North Atlantic region.
“The shutdown of the AMOC can have significant implications for the Earth’s climate, such as altering the global distribution of heat and precipitation,” stated Prof. Peter Ditlevsen from the Niels Bohr Institute.
“While the cooling of Europe may appear less severe compared to global warming and the increase in heatwaves, this shutdown will contribute to further warming of the tropics, where rising temperatures have already created challenging living conditions,” added Ditlevsen.
“The results of our study underscore the urgent need to decrease global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible.”
These findings contradict the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which deemed a change in ocean currents “very unlikely” within this century.
The most recent occurrence of ocean circulation collapse took place during the last ice age, resulting in extreme climate changes with temperature swings of 10 to 15 degrees over a decade. Currently, climate change is occurring at a rate of 1.5 degrees of warming per century.
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