Potential Collapse of Gulf Stream System Imminent

New research suggests that one of the most concerning climate change tipping points could happen sooner than expected. Scientists warn that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream, could have disastrous consequences for billions of people. Danish climate scientist, Peter Ditlevsen, and his sister, Susanne Ditlevsen, a professor of statistics, have analyzed this network of ocean currents and predict that it could weaken or shut down between 2025 and 2095. However, the most probable timeframe is midcentury. This alarming prediction is based on the current scenario of future emissions. (Nature, New York Times)

The AMOC plays a crucial role in moving warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. However, melting ice poses a significant challenge. According to the Ditlevsens, greenhouse gas emissions contribute to global warming, which accelerates the melting of Greenland ice. As a result, the freshwater entering the North Atlantic disrupts the AMOC, potentially causing major climate disruptions. The increased freshwater is lighter than the surrounding salty seawater, hindering the normal sinking process and weakening or even shutting down the AMOC. The consequences of an AMOC collapse include cooling of Europe and North America by a few degrees, rising sea levels, and severe disruptions to rainfall in North America and beyond. (USA Today)

This change would have a far-reaching impact on agriculture in Asia, South America, and Africa, posing a threat to the food supply for billions of people. Peter Ditlevsen emphasizes the significance of this potential collapse, stating that the AMOC has not been shut off in the past 12,000 years. The research underscores the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While there is agreement among scientists regarding emission reduction, some experts question the Ditlevsens’ analysis due to uncertainties surrounding the AMOC tipping point and the reliability of statistical records dating back to 1870. (Read more ocean currents stories.) (Guardian)