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Last week, during an East Coast dinner party attended by individuals from various fields like finance, tech, academia, and politics, one of my tablemates leaned in and whispered, “Do you think we are living in Leopoldstadt?”
In case you’re unfamiliar with Tom Stoppard’s acclaimed play, it revolves around a Viennese Jewish family who initially dismiss the Nazi threat as mere fantasy, only to suffer dire consequences later on.
Although my dining companion didn’t draw this comparison due to rising anti-Semitism, her concern was that the American establishment might be unknowingly heading towards a different peril, one they’d prefer to dismiss as unlikely, concerning former President Donald Trump.
Recent polls indicate that Trump is the most favored candidate among Republican-leaning voters. In fact, a CNN poll last month revealed that 47 percent of respondents support him as a presidential nominee. This implies that if a vote were to take place today with multiple challengers (as is currently the case), he would almost certainly secure the nomination. Many of the individuals at the dinner party shared this view, with the general consensus being that the 2024 election will be a choice between Trump and the incumbent president, Joe Biden. Similar sentiments have been echoed in other gatherings I’ve attended.
Despite polls showing a slight edge for Biden, many guests also believe there’s a reasonable chance for Trump to win, especially if the economy falters before next year and a third-party candidate emerges, potentially dividing the Democrat vote. For example, popular intellectual Cornel West is considering running on a Green party ticket, while the bipartisan No Labels group is contemplating the candidacy of either Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia or former Governor Larry Hogan from Maryland. As the political polling website FiveThirtyEight points out, “Initial evidence suggests that, in a rematch between Biden and Trump, a No Labels and/or West campaign could pull marginal support from Biden and subtly shift the election towards Trump.”
It was also interesting to note that my dining companions, including individuals who have known Trump for decades, suspect that his second term would be different from the first. One person even predicted he would be “hell-bent” on seeking revenge against those who challenged him during his initial tenure. Additionally, sources who have worked with Trump in the White House have informed me that establishment figures would be hesitant to collaborate with him again, given the number of bridges burned during his first term. This could potentially result in an even more unconventional team surrounding him.
A re-elected Trump would feel empowered to challenge existing institutions. Analysts at the Bridgewater hedge fund recently cautioned clients that a second term would likely lead to “further degradation of several long-standing US government institutions and norms… and an increased risk of visible political conflict and instability.” The mere possibility of a closely contested election “heightens the risk of one side or the other contesting or not accepting the result,” as Bridgewater highlights.
So far, the establishment doesn’t appear to be overly concerned about these gloomy forecasts. Perhaps they assume that Trump will be eliminated from the race due to a lawsuit; this week, he moved closer to indictment for his involvement in the January 6, 2021 insurrection. Alternatively, they might believe that the prospect of Trump is so horrifying to Democrats that they will rally behind Biden at the polls, regardless of any reservations they may have.
However, I suspect that another factor contributing to their lack of alarm is the message conveyed by Leopoldstadt: individuals who have achieved success in a country that supposedly cherishes its constitution and democracy find it extremely difficult to imagine these foundations crumbling. It is human nature to assume that shocking events are just temporary aberrations, whether it’s the January 2021 insurrection or Trump’s election in 2016.
The harsh reality, in my opinion, is that America’s establishment is becoming increasingly disconnected, cognitively speaking, from many low-income citizens. This is evident in the continued high levels of support for Trump. Moreover, it’s quite perplexing that when voters were asked about their biggest current fear in a recent Chapman University poll, “corrupt government officials” topped the list. This oddity can be explained by the fact that, much like Trump, certain factions of right-wing media frequently invoke the notion of the Washington “swamp”.
I’m not suggesting that a dystopian Trumpian future is inevitable. The mere thought boggles my mind as well. However, we cannot afford to ignore the possibility. History has shown that failing to take such risks seriously only increases their likelihood of occurrence. Perhaps someone should create a modern adaptation of Stoppard’s play, set in America in 2023. I’d certainly be interested in watching it.
Follow Gillian on Twitter @gilliantett and email her at [email protected]
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