KYIV, Ukraine — The debate regarding Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO has long focused on the risks associated with Ukraine joining the alliance, both for Ukraine itself and for member nations. The main concern has been that Ukraine’s membership could push Russian President Vladimir Putin into a corner, prompting him to escalate his war.
As the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania approaches, Ukraine has expressed its ambition to receive a political invitation to join the organization. However, it is important to note that Ukraine is not seeking immediate NATO membership. President Volodymyr Zelensky understands that Ukraine should join after the war ends and does not want to involve NATO members in the conflict with Russia. Ukraine is instead seeking a political invitation to end the “strategic ambiguity” that has plagued its relationship with NATO since the 2008 summit in Bucharest.
There has been renewed concern over the risks associated with Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. However, for the majority of Ukrainians who have lost loved ones or been affected by Russian aggression, these worries seem unfounded. Moreover, the idea of keeping Ukraine out of NATO to prevent further Russian aggression is flawed. Putin had already threatened to use nuclear weapons before Ukraine requested a political invitation. Additionally, Putin is not interested in escalating the conflict into World War III, as the Russian Army would not stand a chance against NATO. The risks of not inviting Ukraine to join NATO far outweigh the risks of inviting them.
Failing to extend a political invitation to Ukraine would be perceived as a victory for Putin, allowing him to maintain his de facto veto power over NATO enlargement. It would confirm that his strategy of waging wars and occupying other countries prevents them from joining the alliance. By keeping Ukraine in limbo, Putin will continue to attack the country in the hopes of creating a new Russian Empire. NATO membership is the best insurance against future attacks.
Delaying the decision will also hinder Ukraine’s democratic reforms. While some of these reforms are required for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, others, such as civilian control of the military, are more likely to succeed if included as a precondition for joining NATO. If the process stalls, a large army will operate without democratic civilian control. Including Ukraine’s army in the collective security structure is crucial.
Furthermore, if NATO fails to act on Ukraine’s invitation, it will discredit the alliance in the eyes of Ukrainians and millions of residents in NATO member states who support Ukraine’s membership. Polls show that a majority of Americans, French, and Dutch citizens support Ukraine’s NATO membership. Maintaining the status quo will demotivate Ukrainian soldiers, scare away investors, and discourage Ukrainian refugees from returning home.
Some NATO leaders may argue that the timing is not right for Ukraine’s invitation. However, is there ever a perfect time? Waiting until the next NATO summit in Washington, while the US is in the midst of a presidential campaign, seems uncertain. Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership will persist. It is the fear of escalation from Putin that led to the current conflict, and granting Ukraine a political invitation to join NATO is the best way to bury Moscow’s imperialist dreams.
Alyona Getmanchuk, founder and director of the New Europe Center think tank, emphasizes the importance of Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO. It is time for Western nations to recognize the sacrifices made by Ukraine and help put an end to Russian aggression.
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