Government adviser warns that the next pandemic could be more lethal than Covid

A leading scientist cautioned today that the next pandemic could be even more lethal than Covid-19 and urged the UK to be better prepared for future health crises.

Professor Mark Woolhouse stated that the coronavirus outbreak, which claimed the lives of at least 227,000 individuals in the UK, was not as severe as it could have been.

During the Covid Inquiry, the epidemiologist, who was part of the Scientific Pandemic Infections group on Modelling (SPI-M) advising the government, criticized the UK’s focus on preparing solely for an influenza pandemic rather than considering various outbreak scenarios, including coronaviruses.

Although he expressed reluctance to be seen as a pessimist, Professor Woolhouse cautioned that the next outbreak could be significantly worse.

Speaking in London, he disclosed, “I hope this doesn’t sound too shocking, but in terms of potential pandemics, Covid-19 was not at the top, and it may have been quite distant from the top.”

Professor Mark Woolhouse said the coronavirus outbreak, which killed at least 227,000 in the UK, was potentially nowhere near as bad as it could have been

He added, “There will be a next time; I don’t know when, it may be quite some time in the future. We might have to deal with a virus that is more deadly and highly transmissible. In that case, the measures employed to control Covid-19 would likely be ineffective.”

Although he refrained from predicting an imminent crisis, Professor Woolhouse strongly advised the government to be concerned and prepared for such an eventuality.

He cautioned, “The next pandemic could be far more challenging to manage than Covid-19, and we witnessed the devastation caused by that pandemic.”

The ongoing inquiry, now in its fourth week, has repeatedly heard criticism about the UK’s lack of preparedness beyond the scope of a flu-like outbreak.

Professor Woolhouse likened this strategy to putting all your resources on one horse in the Grand National horse race.

Government data up to May 23 shows the number of deaths of people whose death certificate mentioned Covid as one of the causes, and seven-day rolling average. Baroness Hallett told the inquiry she intends to answer three key questions: was the UK properly prepared for the pandemic, was the response appropriate, and can lessons be learned for the future?

He explained, “The problem is that there are many horses in the Grand National, and the favorite has a slim chance of winning.

If you bet on the favorite, you’re likely to lose your money. This is a fair analogy to how we viewed pandemic threats at the time.”

Professor Woolhouse advocated for a strategy of “hedging your bets” by planning for different potential outcomes.

The inquiry also revealed that local health authorities were often left uninformed by the central government during the pandemic.

Directors of Public Health, responsible for addressing major health issues at the local level, admitted they learned about guidance during the early stages of the pandemic through media sources rather than direct communication from the government.

Professor Jim McManus, President of the Association of Directors of Public Health, criticized the top-down approach, highlighting the lack of communication between government departments and local teams.

He stated, “Sometimes, we received no response or communication, and we found out about new guidance at the same time as the general public through the 5 pm news bulletin.”

Professor McManus and his colleagues created their own platforms to exchange information since they were not receiving it from Westminster.

He emphasized the importance of involving Directors of Public Health, as they possess knowledge of local communities and specific concerns.

The inquiry is ongoing.