Admiral John Aquilino, the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, was asked if the United States has the capability to match China’s arsenal of theater-range missiles. His answer was simple and concerning: “Zero.” This raises serious doubts about America’s ability to deter war and emerge victorious if deterrence fails. China currently possesses over 1,250 ground-launched theater-range ballistic and cruise missiles that can reach U.S. targets in the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, China tested more ballistic missiles in 2021 than the rest of the world combined. Their rocket force plays a vital role in their “anti-access/area denial” strategy, aimed at pushing U.S. forces out of key regions. Recent war games have shown that in a conflict with Taiwan, China’s precision strikes on U.S. military bases and Navy ships in Guam would cause significant damage and limit our counterattack capabilities.
This significant missile gap is a result of decades of limitations imposed by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty, which restricted the United States and Russia (but not China) from deploying certain missile capabilities. After Russia was caught cheating, the Trump administration withdrew from the treaty in 2019. However, we have made little progress in closing the missile gap with China. To address this, the Rings of Fire Act of 2023 aims to force the Pentagon to develop a strategy for countering China’s missile advantages. This strategy would identify gaps in our capabilities, develop concepts for operating these fires, and establish alliances and basing locations to deploy them effectively. By leveraging geography and deploying missiles across the Indo-Pacific with the support of partners and allies, we can establish “rings of fire” that create a defense-in-depth strategy.
The United States currently lacks intermediate-range systems under development, while China has already made significant advancements. It is crucial for the U.S. to catch up and develop ground-based missiles that provide affordable and ready strike options. Building and fielding these systems should not be solely the responsibility of the United States – our allies and partners must join us in development and production to reduce costs and enhance interoperability. Australia has already expressed a willingness to modernize their guided weapons programs and manufacture long-range weapons. Through initiatives like AUKUS, we can collaborate with our closest allies in the region to accelerate the development and production of next-generation missile technologies.
By closing the missile gap, we can shift the regional balance of power in our favor and deter China from taking aggressive action. However, this requires sustained oversight and attention from the highest levels of the U.S. government. Restoring deterrence in the Indo-Pacific must be a priority as the risks of great power conflict continue to grow.
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