Yevgeny Prigozhin’s ill-fated rebellion has proven to be short-sighted and without purpose. Within a day of sending his tanks and troops towards Moscow, Prigozhin was forced to retreat and seek refuge in Belarus. The aftermath of this failed mutiny raises questions about how it will impact President Putin – will it weaken him, strengthen him, or make him more vindictive?
In a televised address, Putin vowed to crush the rebellion, labeling it as “treason,” “betrayal,” and “mutiny.” Videos captured Russian attack helicopters attacking the rebel convoy and ditches being dug to impede their progress. However, Putin avoided directly mentioning Prigozhin or his mercenary army, the Wagner Group. Instead of immediately ending the uprising, Putin chose to hold back, using Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko, whom he effectively controls, to entice Prigozhin into abandoning the rebellion with promises of amnesty.
The true events surrounding the rebellion remain shrouded in mystery. American intelligence services reportedly noticed signs of an insurrection brewing as early as the previous Wednesday. Speculation on social media suggests that the entire rebellion was a staged act orchestrated by Putin himself, although it is impossible to know for sure. Given the reckless invasion of Ukraine and the incompetence displayed by the Russian military, anything is plausible.
However, the most plausible explanation is that Prigozhin, a thug known more for using brute force than political tactics, decided to pursue his personal vendetta against Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Prigozhin has long been at odds with Shoigu over the handling of the Ukraine war, accusing him of inadequate support for the Wagner Group.
Prigozhin embodies the archetype of a post-Soviet villain. After spending the majority of the 1980s in prison, he amassed a fortune during the chaotic post-Soviet period. He gained favor with Putin by catering state dinners, earning him the nickname “Putin’s chef,” although he claims he never actually cooked a meal. Among his numerous wrongdoings, Prigozhin is responsible for establishing the Wagner Group, which emerged during Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. The group has since participated in missions in Libya, Syria, and the Central African Republic with the Kremlin’s tacit approval.
Deployed to Ukraine early in the invasion, the Wagner Group suffered significant losses. Prigozhin then recruited convicts, promising them freedom if they survived, an offer many did not live to see. He publicly launched profanity-laced tirades against Shoigu and other Russian commanders, blaming them for the war’s failures.
Last week, in a fit of anger, Prigozhin took control of the southern command center in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, and ordered his men to march to Moscow for a “march for justice” and a meeting with military commanders. They made it within 125 miles of the capital before turning back on Prigozhin’s orders.
The upcoming events are unpredictable. The open mutiny led by a notorious and brutal militia, followed by Putin’s successful suppression of it, will undoubtedly have significant political consequences in Russia. None of the potential scenarios bode well for either Russia or Ukraine.
As an autocrat fixated on annexing Ukraine, Putin will likely escalate hostilities to demonstrate to Ukrainians and the West that he remains strong. He may also seek to disprove Prigozhin’s claims about the disorganized and incompetent state of the Russian military. However, he may need to sacrifice a few military leaders to save face as an all-knowing commander-in-chief.
Following the attempted mutiny, Russia unleashed a barrage of missiles and drones against Ukraine. With a powerful Ukrainian counteroffensive underway, Putin may issue new ominous threats. A prominent expert on foreign and defense policy recently argued that Russia should lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons to reestablish their deterrence capabilities.
Additionally, Putin could attempt to blame the rebellion on the United States, even though Washington has distanced itself from any involvement with Prigozhin. American intelligence agencies deliberately delayed revealing their knowledge until after the rebellion had ended.
Interestingly, in his speech, Putin referenced the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, which resulted in a humiliating peace agreement with Germany. This analogy is curious given that the Bolsheviks overthrew the Romanov dynasty and eventually led to the creation of the Soviet Union, which Putin has lamented. In this historical scenario, Russia was the loser.
After surviving this mutiny, Putin will need to reaffirm his authority and power within Russia. Prigozhin never accused Putin directly, instead accusing his rivals of failing the infallible leader. While it is a relief that no Russian forces joined the Wagner march, Prigozhin’s allegations about the war’s mismanagement and improper motivations have dealt a blow to Putin. He will need to find scapegoats to maintain his grip on power.
Failed coups often provide dictators and strongmen with opportunities to target real or perceived enemies. After the “doctors’ plot” in the 1950s, Stalin purged the Communist Party leadership. More recently, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan swiftly arrested thousands of individuals following an unsuccessful coup attempt in 2016.
Putin has now created an environment where further repression can flourish in Russia, potentially leading to a vicious crackdown on anyone within the Russian elite or leadership who dares to question him. While he did not explicitly name Prigozhin in his speech, he warned that anyone who betrayed him and orchestrated an armed mutiny would be inevitably punished. This leaves the possibility open for purges of his choosing.
This raises the question of Prigozhin’s fate and that of the Wagner Group. Russian history is filled with tales of rebellions and pretenders, very few of which ended well for the rebels. Cossacks who switched sides during a critical battle in 1709 were deceived with promises of amnesty, only to have their heads displayed on spikes and sent floating down the Dnieper River.
The story most relevant to Prigozhin may be that of Emelian Pugachev, a Cossack who led a massive rebellion against Catherine the Great in the 1770s, claiming to be her murdered husband, Peter III. This rebellion, driven by peasant anger at corrupt military leadership, is widely known among Russians through Alexander Pushkin’s novel, “The Captain’s Daughter.” At one point in the story, Pushkin warns of the senseless and merciless nature of a Russian rebellion. Pugachev was eventually captured, publicly executed, and his body displayed in Moscow. The term “pugachevshchina” was coined to describe senseless and doomed rebellions in Russian history.
It’s unlikely that Putin will allow Prigozhin to escape punishment
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