Putin Finds Himself Trapped

The mercenary group known as the Wagner Group made an audacious move in Russia, covering an impressive 800 kilometers, engaging in combat, and even taking control of a regional military command. This daring display provoked a panic in Moscow, leading to troops digging trenches and the mayor urging citizens to stay home. However, what struck many as the strangest aspect of this failed coup was the reaction of the people of Rostov-on-Don, including the city’s military leaders, to these new self-appointed rulers.

The Wagner mercenaries entered the city without encountering any resistance. Surprisingly, nobody attempted to shoot at them. In a photograph published by The New York Times, the mercenaries can be seen leisurely strolling along a street, with one of their tanks in the background, casually holding yellow coffee cups.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the notorious leader of Wagner and a former convict, even posted videos of himself conversing with local commanders at the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District. Astonishingly, no objections were raised about his presence.

Meanwhile, street sweepers continued their work outside. Although a few onlookers gathered in the morning, the numbers were not significant. However, after Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a panicked television speech, comparing the situation to 1917 and invoking the ghost of civil war, a man berated the Wagnerites and told them to go home. The troops simply laughed it off. As the day progressed, more people began to show up, and a warmer atmosphere developed.

The people shook hands with the mercenaries, brought them food, and even took selfies. One woman on camera mentioned the act of bringing pirozhki, apples, and chips to the soldiers. In the evening, after Prigozhin decided to stand down and depart, he left in an SUV while crowds filmed him on their cellphones, cheering him on as if he were a celebrity leaving a movie premiere or an art gallery opening. Some even chanted “Wagner! Wagner!” as the troops emerged onto the street. This remarkable aspect of the day was that nobody seemed to mind the arrival of a brutal new warlord to replace the existing regime. This sentiment was prevalent among the security services, the army, and the general public. In fact, many seemed reluctant to bid him farewell.

Understanding this response requires acknowledging the power of apathy, often underestimated as a political tool. While democratic politicians focus on engaging and convincing people to vote, autocrats like Putin pursue the opposite strategy: convincing people not to participate, not to care, and to avoid all things political. The propaganda employed in Putin’s Russia serves this purpose, inundating people with conflicting explanations and falsehoods to foster widespread cynicism. When truth becomes elusive, cynicism prevails, rendering protests and engagement futile.

However, apathy revealed another side effect. If people don’t care about anything, it means they don’t care about their supreme leader, his ideologies, or his wars. Russians haven’t rushed to join the fight in Ukraine, nor have they rallied around the troops or held emotional ceremonies to commemorate successes or deaths. While they haven’t organized against the war, they also haven’t organized in support of it.

Fear, lack of alternatives, or a perceived obligation may drive individuals to tell pollsters that they support Putin. Yet, when it came to the Wagner group in Rostov-on-Don, hardly anyone attempted to stop them, and the security services remained silent and inactive. The military dug trenches around Moscow and dispatched helicopters, while bulldozers were deployed to dig up highways — the extent of the response. This begs the question: Who will rise to the challenge if Putin faces a more serious threat? The military will undoubtedly exercise caution, especially considering that more Russian servicemen lost their lives at the hands of the Wagner mutineers than during the failed 1991 coup. Interestingly, this doesn’t seem to concern many.

It is too early to speculate about Prigozhin’s true motives, what he received in exchange for standing down, or where Putin spent Saturday. This regime’s flimsy ideology and weak support, however, have been exposed. It is reasonable to anticipate increased repression as Putin strives to maintain control, leading to further chaos or, perhaps, both.

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