In an announcement made by Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko, it was revealed that Evgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the short-lived rebellion against Russian military leadership, would be allowed to “retire” to Belarus in exchange for stopping his “March of Justice” to Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov justified the deal by stating that it was aimed at avoiding bloodshed and internal conflicts. However, this explanation seems contradictory considering that just hours before, Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to Prigozhin’s mutiny as treason and betrayal, indicating that it posed a significant threat to Russian statehood. This raises the question of what the true purpose behind Prigozhin’s escape was.
It is evident that the Kremlin feared Prigozhin’s mutiny could lead to a broader military rebellion. Prigozhin faced little resistance as his forces marched into Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District and a key location for the military effort in Eastern Ukraine. He swiftly took control of the command center and even reprimanded high-ranking military officials for the loss of lives in Ukraine. Prigozhin’s ability to advance so rapidly suggests that some units of the Russian defense forces stationed along the way may have supported his mission.
Given the hardships faced by the Russian military in the war in Ukraine, it is understandable if some junior officers sympathized with Prigozhin’s grievances against the high command. High casualty rates, desertions by commanders, rampant corruption, and the use of underprepared soldiers as cannon fodder have contributed to a deteriorating situation. Putin’s warning against joining the rebellion in his speech implies that Prigozhin was gaining followers as he approached Moscow. The preparations made by Moscow for a long and bloody battle further indicate genuine concerns about an impending conflict. Allowing Lukashenko to negotiate a quick end to the rebellion and granting freedom to the mutineers, especially Prigozhin, was a calculated move by Putin to prevent a wider conflict.
These events shed light on the current situation in Russia and provide insights into Putin’s future approach to the war in Ukraine. Putin, despite appearing weak and ineffective to external observers, will likely use his control over Russian media to place blame on Ukraine, NATO, and other enemies, while potentially taking credit for avoiding mass casualties through the deal with Prigozhin. Nevertheless, his carefully cultivated image of competence may be tarnished. Over time, this could undermine elite confidence, although an open coup attempt is unlikely in the near future.
Moreover, the disorganized response from the Russian leadership to Prigozhin’s rebellion benefits Ukraine. The Wagner mercenaries had achieved one of Russia’s few military successes when they captured the town of Bakhmut. With their departure from the battlefield, Ukraine stands to gain an advantage. Additionally, there may be more instances of military mutinies in the future.
While the Wagner rebellion does not mark the end of the war or Putin’s reign, it may signify the beginning of their decline.
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