When Californians contemplate leaving the state, many of them prioritize increasing their sense of safety. Recent reports have brought attention to the migration challenges faced by the Golden State, with concerns raised about California’s approach to crime. To shed light on this topic and provide some economic insights, I’ve analyzed a wealth of data from various sources to evaluate the safety of all 50 states.
The concept of safety is somewhat subjective and encompasses personal preferences. Does it solely refer to crime prevention or should other potential dangers like weather conditions, business cycles, and transportation also be considered? Additionally, what are the costs associated with these risks?
For those in a hurry to leave California, according to my calculations, the safest states to settle in are Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and Rhode Island.
On the other hand, individuals seeking safety should avoid states like Louisiana, Arkansas, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Oklahoma.
However, it’s important to acknowledge the inherent challenges in measuring safety. No ranking system is perfect, and it’s impossible to account for everyone’s individual needs.
In my pursuit of determining the safest states, I began by examining risk assessments conducted by reputable sources such as WalletHub, US News and World Report, and Consumer Affairs. I also incorporated scorecards that focused on specific security aspects, including natural disasters, workplace safety, road hazards, and the economy, from organizations like MoneyGeek, Oxfam, Bankrate, and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Additionally, government statistics were factored into the analysis.
Crime counts
Many individuals associate “safety” with the prevalence of criminal activities and strategies to avoid them.
The task of quantifying crime is complex, with a plethora of statistics available. The definition of crime itself can vary, encompassing all legal violations or solely focusing on the most severe and violent offenses. Should personal legal safety be considered? Should one prioritize the quality or quantity of policing? Furthermore, the local justice system can also impact safety.
Three national measures of public safety were taken into account to tackle the intricacies of crime calculation. My composite index, utilizing these assessments, reveals that New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont, New Jersey, and Connecticut are the best states for crime avoidance. On the other hand, the states with the highest crime rates are Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, Alaska, and Colorado. If ranked, California would place 32nd in terms of safety.
Other hazards
Safety extends beyond crime prevention and encompasses various other potential threats.
My evaluation allocated 50% of each state’s safety grade to risks unrelated to public safety. Let’s explore five specific hazards, each accounting for 10% of a state’s safety rating.
Climate risks: What are the chances of experiencing life-altering events caused by natural disasters?
Floods, fires, winds, droughts, blizzards, and earthquakes all pose potential risks. Government agencies assess these dangers, providing one method for individuals seeking to evaluate the likelihood of these events impacting their lives and finances.
Amongst the states, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Maine face the smallest climate risks, while Louisiana, Mississippi, and Iowa confront the highest levels of vulnerability. California, if ranked, would place 34th in terms of climate-related safety.
Road hazards: This category encompasses multiple aspects of road safety, including accident rates, fatalities, drunk driving incidents, and road quality.
Ultimately, it aims to address the question of how one can avoid encounters with the most reckless drivers in the country.
According to my analysis, the states with the best drivers are Massachusetts, Minnesota, and New York. Conversely, Mississippi, Arkansas, and New Mexico have the most hazardous roads. California, if ranked, would place 32nd in terms of road safety.
Workplace safety: Depending on one’s occupation, workplace injuries can be a significant concern.
Moreover, different states have varying laws in place to protect workers’ health and financial well-being.
Based on my calculations, workers can feel safest in Washington, Oregon, and Vermont. Conversely, individuals should exercise caution in Mississippi, Idaho, and North Dakota. California places fourth in terms of workplace safety.
Economic security: Financial stability is never guaranteed, and individuals also face the risk of monetary setbacks caused by factors ranging from economic fluctuations to fraudulent schemes.
Consequently, it is crucial to evaluate which states provide the most robust protection for wealth, personal finances, and career opportunities.
Minnesota, Utah, and Idaho receive the highest grades in terms of economic security, while Louisiana, Mississippi, and New Mexico fare the worst. California, if ranked, would place 31st in terms of economic security.
Insurance: To make an informed decision about relocation, individuals must consider various risks and determine their comfort level with uncertainty.
Insurance companies use similar risk calculations, reflected in the premiums they charge consumers.
By comparing auto and property insurance policy premiums to local incomes, I have evaluated the financial burden of insurance in each state. Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey emerge as the most affordable states for insurance, while Kentucky, Oregon, and Maine have the highest insurance costs. California, if ranked, ranks 21st in terms of insurance expenses.
Bottom line
No mathematical calculation can capture the subjective experience of safety.
Personal security is a deeply individual and emotional concept.
From a political perspective, it is worth noting that there is a belief that “blue” states like California are not conducive to safety. Comparing my rankings, which define “blue” states as those that supported President Biden in 2020 and “red” states as those that did not, the average blue state has a safety ranking of 17, while the average red state ranks 33rd.
Interestingly, my rankings suggest that ex-Californians do not often gravitate towards the states that appear to be the safest. Popular destinations like Texas, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona have rankings of 43, 36, 31, and 25, respectively, with Idaho being the exception at 10.
To be fair, it’s possible that some individuals have lower safety expectations when leaving the Golden State. If California were included in my safety scorecard, it would rank as low as 32nd.
Jonathan Lansner is a business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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