President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has confirmed that the country’s long-awaited counteroffensive against Russian-occupied territory is underway. Ukraine, after months of defending against airstrikes, has now taken the offensive and is actively searching for weaknesses along the 600-mile front line, even striking Russian soil.
However, despite the intense battles, it has been challenging to assess the progress of the counteroffensive. There are several reasons why it’s difficult to determine its success. One of the main reasons is that offense is inherently more difficult than defense, as military history has shown. Last year, Russian troops were unable to reach Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, due to logistical challenges and Ukrainian resistance. The lack of coordination between different branches of the Russian military prevented President Putin’s plan to take over Ukraine from succeeding.
While Russia managed to occupy eastern and southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are now counterattacking. The Russian troops have used their time as occupiers to construct extensive defensive works, including trenches, minefields, and dragon’s teeth barriers. To advance, Ukrainian troops must identify weak points in the Russian defense lines and avoid venturing too far behind enemy lines without adequate reinforcements.
The counteroffensive has resulted in casualties for the Ukrainian troops, with little information available on Russian losses. It is important to note that attackers typically suffer heavier initial casualties compared to defenders. The counteroffensive is not failing despite these losses. The main thrust of the counteroffensive is yet to begin, as the bulk of the trained Ukrainian brigades have not yet engaged in battle.
To determine the main attack’s initiation, experts are looking for large armored formations consisting of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Satellite imagery would easily spot such formations. The Ukrainian High Command intends to keep the location of the main attack secret as long as possible, taking a page from the Allies’ playbook during D-Day when they misdirected the Germans.
While Ukraine cannot achieve complete surprise due to satellite imagery, they are launching attacks in multiple sites to keep the Russians off-balance and test their defenses. The Ukrainians are searching for weak spots in the Russian lines and have the potential to break through poorly defended areas with inadequate Russian forces.
Overall, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is underway, and while challenges exist, there is potential for success by exploiting weaknesses in the Russian defenses.
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