The Federal Reserve is expected to take a break from its 10-meeting streak of raising interest rates and let the US economy catch its breath. Market analysts have priced in a high probability that central bank policymakers will opt to “skip” rather than pause at this month’s meeting as they evaluate the impact of 5 percentage points of increases since March 2022. Experts suggest this won’t be the end of the hikes, but officials, with the pace of inflation waning, may decide this is a good time to evaluate, setting things up for a pause. However, they will want to avoid a scenario in which investors believe that the tightening cycle is over. The post-meeting statement could well be massaged to communicate a “hawkish pause,” and individual members’ expectations of where rates are headed from here, published in the dot plot, will be closely watched. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will field questions from the press and explain the intentions behind the actions at the presser.
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