Legal cases involving a former US president inevitably entail both legal and political considerations. However, Donald Trump has been lucky so far that none of his numerous scandals has been both legally sound and politically compelling. The April indictment against him concerning hush money payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels turned into felonies through legal manipulation and alleged falsification of 34 counts of business records. The next two cases against him show a different picture; one with strong legal evidence but questionable political impact, and the other with all the drama of a Hollywood movie but little provable evidence. The latest indictment contains some evidence that is easy to prove, accusing the former president of withholding classified intelligence despite court-ordered subpoenas, with co-conspirators’ testimony and audio tapes of Trump confessing to the offense. However, the ability of scraps of papers to break through the political noise remains uncertain. Conversely, an indictment expected this summer out of Georgia based on audio recordings of Trump attempting to manipulate votes would be the stuff of political thrillers but is harder to prove as it requires the demonstration of intent. Nevertheless, the direction of the prosecutions is leading towards cases that are substantially more consequential and will start to have an effect on Trump, sapping him of both time and resources. Although Trump is the favorite contender for the Republican nomination in 2024, the summer of 2021 may well dictate whether he can stay there.
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