The author of ‘Black Wave’ discusses the current political climate in relation to past events.
In 1990, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and faced sanctions from the international community. This led to Operation Desert Storm, which liberated Kuwait. The Saudis and the Iranians announced they were resuming diplomatic ties soon after. The Taliban took over in Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal. President Hafez al-Assad participated in the coalition that rallied to liberate Kuwait despite accusations of Syria’s involvement in terror attacks against the west.
Today, while Bashar al-Assad may have returned to the Arab fold, he is still not an ally of the west. There is no Arab-Israeli peace summit like the 1991 Madrid conference. US President Joe Biden speaks about the battle between democratic and authoritarian forces, but a new world order is still in the making.
We are in a fractured interregnum of shifting powers. Polycrisis, authoritarianism, and deglobalisation are some of the consequences of this time. Saudi Arabia is strategically positioning itself to be a linchpin in the future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked to attend the Arab League summit, and Saudi Arabia agreed, signaling a need for more support from the Arab world to isolate Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Saudi Arabia is also part of the new holy grail of peacemaking – the normalisation of ties with Israel. The Biden administration could seek more public cooperation between the two countries to build bridges in a difficult region. Saudi Arabia is also making efforts to improve relations in the neighbourhood, resuming ties with Qatar and making up with Iran. However, the detente with Iran is mostly for buying breathing space, and it may not last long.
The risk of confrontation between Israel and Iran’s proxies is increasing, and Saudi Arabia may find itself pressed to normalise ties with Israel once again. Despite the uncertainties of the global phase that is not yet born, the Middle East will again prove key.
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