Hindsight, as they say, is always 20/20. This aphorism is often used to absolve us of responsibility for poor decisions — how could we have predicted the disastrous outcome, after all? However, when that hindsight is based on data concerning a global pandemic, it becomes a less effective excuse.
Such is the case with the statistics presented in a new report from the Empire Center. This report delves into “retrospective modeling” of the toll that COVID-19 took during its deadly first wave in the late winter and spring of 2020. With research from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, it offers a closer estimation of the true number of infections and deaths caused by the virus, a time when testing was scarce or nonexistent. According to the analysis, the peak of the COVID wave occurred in mid-March, with approximately 61,000 infections per day — about six times higher than the highest number of positive tests recorded in mid-April.
All in all, the Empire Center’s report titled “Behind the Curve” concludes that New York’s initial battle with COVID started earlier than previously believed. Furthermore, it suggests that during the three-month period of highest infection, New York was among the hardest-hit areas not only in the United States but also globally. In fact, its mortality rate was second only to that of Mexico City.
The report argues that the state’s inability to recognize when the wave was reaching its peak led to a range of decisions, from wasteful to potentially deadly. For instance, if the infection rate is declining, there is likely less urgency to empty hospitals and allocate resources to establish emergency treatment centers in anticipation of a significant increase in cases. In other words, there is less need for Executive Chamber guidance that mandates nursing homes to admit residents from hospitals regardless of their COVID status.
These lessons, among others, are not mere revelations in hindsight. They are essential in preparing the state for future pandemics. This editorial board has previously called for a thorough independent review of the state’s response to COVID. Governor Kathy Hochul’s administration engaged the services of the Virginia-based consulting firm, The Olson Group Ltd., last year. The firm is expected to present its findings this fall. The Empire Center is justified in highlighting the limitations of outsourcing this task to a contractor, such as the Olson Group lacking subpoena power to compel testimony.
The end of summer has brought news of a rise in COVID cases throughout the state and the emergence of a new COVID variant spreading worldwide. It is too early to determine whether this variant, described as the most unique since omicron two years ago, will significantly impact commerce and education or remain merely bothersome — as demonstrated by the recent closure of Saratoga Springs’ city clerk’s office.
This news should serve as a reminder to New Yorkers, perhaps more so than anyone else, of the importance of remaining vigilant and keeping your immunization up to date.
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